劳动力市场结构性改革的宏观经济效应:一个模拟分析

发布时间：2018-06-28 19:12

本文选题：劳动力市场结构性改革 + 雇佣成本　；参考：《财经研究》2017年10期

【摘要】：文章考虑了我国非正规就业普遍存在的现实,构建包含非正规就业的动态随机一般均衡模型,分析我国劳动力市场结构性改革的短期效应和长期效应。研究发现,不同劳动力市场结构性改革的短期效应与长期效应存在显著差异:(1)就长期效应而言,以降低正规部门雇佣成本为内容的第一种劳动力市场结构性改革、以降低正规部门议价能力为内容的第二种劳动力市场结构性改革均有助于产出的增加以及就业的正规化(即长期收益);(2)就短期效应而言,第一种劳动力市场结构性改革在短期中引起产出的显著下降和失业的显著上升(即短期疼痛),而第二种劳动力市场结构性改革则并未引起失业的增加。进一步,文章发现货币政策对劳动力市场结构性改革的效应具有重要影响:就基准政策看,旨在降低雇佣成本的第一种劳动力市场结构性改革的效应具有显著的"以短期疼痛换取长期收益"的特征;在Evans规则下,第一种劳动力市场结构性改革的这一特征则不复存在。因此,无论采用哪一种改革方式,Evans规则均可以作为配套性货币政策;并且就改革的效果而言,第二种劳动力市场结构性改革可能更为可取。
[Abstract]:Considering the reality that informal employment exists widely in China, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including informal employment, and analyzes the short-term and long-term effects of structural reform of labor market in China. It is found that there are significant differences between the short-term and long-term effects of structural reforms in different labor markets: (1) in terms of long-term effects, the first type of structural reform in the labour market is aimed at reducing the cost of employment in the formal sector. The second type of labour market structural reform, which focuses on reducing the bargaining power of the formal sector, contributes to the growth of output and the regularization of employment (i.e. long-term earnings); (2) in terms of short-term effects. The first type of structural reform of the labour market caused a significant decline in output and a significant rise in unemployment (short-term pain) in the short term, while the second type of structural reform of the labour market did not lead to an increase in unemployment. Furthermore, the paper finds that monetary policy has an important effect on the structural reform of the labour market: from the perspective of benchmark policy, The effect of the first kind of labor market structural reform aimed at reducing the cost of employment has the characteristic of "exchanging short-term pain for long-term income", but under Evans rule, the first kind of structural reform of labor market no longer exists. Therefore, no matter which way of reform is adopted, Evans rule can be used as a supporting monetary policy, and in terms of the effect of the reform, the second kind of structural reform of the labor market may be preferable.
【作者单位】：中共广东省委党校经济学教研部;中国社会科学院经济研究所;广东财经大学国民经济研究中心;
【基金】：广东省哲学社会科学“十二五”规划学科共建项目(GD14XYJ02)
【分类号】：F249.21

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