中国城镇化影响环境污染的预测与分析

发布时间：2018-07-04 22:09

本文选题：城镇化 + 环境污染　；参考：《调研世界》2017年10期

【摘要】：本文通过建立可拓展的随机性环境影响评估模型,对城镇化演进影响环境污染的前景进行了预测。研究发现:中国城镇化水平预计在2020年将达到60.44%,2030年达到70.99%,城镇化水平不断演进,但速度趋缓;技术、经济、产业结构合理性、城镇化水平和人口因素每增加1%时,环境污染将分别增加0.0428%、0.0729%、-0.1453%、0.0608%、0.0601%;环境污染预测结果显示,"十三五"规划时期城镇化演进将导致环境污染指数上升0.0845,"十四五"规划时期城镇化演进将致使环境污染指数上升0.0328,"十五五"规划时期城镇化演进将导致环境污染指数上升0.0199。
[Abstract]:By establishing an extensible stochastic environmental impact assessment model, the prospect of urbanization evolution affecting environmental pollution is forecasted in this paper. The study found that China's urbanization level is expected to reach 60.4444 in 2020 and 70.99 in 2030. The level of urbanization continues to evolve, but at a slower pace; when the technological, economic, industrial structure is reasonable, the level of urbanization and the population increase by 1 percent. Environmental pollution will be increased by 0.042829, 0.0729- 0.1453, 0.0608 and 0.0601, respectively. The results of environmental pollution prediction show that the evolution of urbanization during the 13th Five-Year Plan period will lead to an increase in the environmental pollution index by 0.0845, and the evolution of urbanization during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will lead to an increase in the environmental pollution index. The evolution of urbanization during the 15th Five-Year Plan period will lead to an increase in the environmental pollution index by 0.0328.
【作者单位】：江西财经大学信息管理学院;
【基金】：江西省2016年度研究生创新专项资金项目“大数据时代下江西省人口老龄化与城镇化建设的相关性研究”(YC2016-S242)
【分类号】：F299.21;X502

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