农村人口转移趋势及空间指向研究

发布时间：2018-07-08 12:06

本文选题：农村人口转移 + 城镇化　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年05期

【摘要】：农村人口转移及城市集群发展加速城镇化进程,把握农村人口转移趋势,导引农村人口有序转移是推动新型城镇化建设的关键。长株潭城市群一体化发展具有典型性和代表性,基于此,本文选择湖南省和长株潭城市群作为研究对象,探讨农村人口转移趋势及其空间指向。本文选择人口发展方程和回归分析两种常见的人口总量预测方法测算湖南省2016—2030年人口总量,比较测算结果发现人口发展方程虽然在年增长率的预设上具有一定的主观性,但在长期人口预测中表现出更好的适用性。在城镇化率预测上,Logistic增长模型具有广泛的适用性。因此本文选择人口发展方程和Logistic增长模型,预测湖南省和长株潭城市群2016—2030年的人口总量和城镇化率,在此基础上计算出人口城乡分布的大致状况,进而估算农村人口转移趋势。预测结果显示2016—2030年间,湖南省和长株潭城市群分别有大约980万和567万农村人口向城市转移,长株潭城市群城镇化率和农村人口转移进程均领先于湖南省平均水平,尤其是城市群中心城市。据此,可得出结论:城镇化进程中的城市群发展在推动农村人口转移中的作用突显,农村人口转移空间指向城市群集聚,即城市群是引领城镇化进程的空间经济主体形态,是农村人口转移的"牵引力",是农村人口转移空间指向的"内聚力"。同时,农村人口加快向城市群聚集的趋势也呼吁城市治理理念和治理模式的创新,智慧城市或是这一变革的最优方案。
[Abstract]:Rural population transfer and urban cluster development accelerate the process of urbanization, grasp the trend of rural population transfer, guide the orderly transfer of rural population is the key to promote the construction of new urbanization. The integrated development of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration is typical and representative. Based on this, this paper chooses Hunan Province and Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration as the research object, and discusses the trend of rural population transfer and its spatial direction. In this paper, population development equation and regression analysis are used to estimate the population of Hunan province from 2016 to 2030. The results show that the population development equation is subjective in the presupposition of the annual growth rate. But in the long-term population projections show better applicability. Logistic growth model is widely applicable to the forecast of urbanization rate. Therefore, this paper chooses the population development equation and Logistic growth model to predict the total population and urbanization rate of Hunan Province and Chang-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration in 2016-2030, and then calculates the general distribution of population in urban and rural areas. And then estimate the trend of rural population transfer. The forecast results show that between 2016 and 2030, Hunan province and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration have about 9.8 million and 5.67 million rural population transferring to cities, respectively, and the urbanization rate and rural population transfer process of Chang-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration are both ahead of the average level of Hunan Province. Especially the urban agglomeration center city. On this basis, we can draw a conclusion that the role of urban agglomeration in the process of urbanization in promoting rural population transfer is prominent, and the space of rural population transfer points to agglomeration of urban agglomeration, that is, urban agglomeration is the main form of spatial economy leading the process of urbanization. It is the "traction" of rural population transfer and the cohesion of rural population transfer space. At the same time, the trend of rural population agglomeration to urban agglomeration also calls for the innovation of urban governance concept and governance model, intelligent city or the best solution of this change.
【作者单位】：江苏师范大学商学院;中国矿业大学管理学院;
【基金】：江苏省社会科学基金项目“江苏省智慧城市治理绩效评价研究”(批准号:16GLC011) 江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学项目“资源型城市群城镇化问题研究”(批准号:2016SJB790032) 国家社会科学基金项目“长三角及其经济腹地城市化空间格局优化研究”(批准号:14BJL110)
【分类号】：F299.27;F323.6

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