我国房地产上市公司财务风险评价及预警研究

发布时间：2018-07-09 22:29

本文选题：房地产上市公司 + 财务风险　；参考：《黑龙江大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：在经济全球化的形势下,特别是自2008年金融危机以来,全球经济仍然处于逐步复苏的进程中,企业是否具有对风险的掌控能力成为其经营发展必须考虑的因素之一。房地产行业是我国国民经济的支柱产业,因此,房地产行业面临着更加激烈的竞争和来自各方面的风险。在这种情况下,客观评价房地产行业的财务风险水平、及时对财务危机进行预警,不仅有利于房地产行业自身改善经营状况、提高风险管控水平,也有助于外部投资者进行合理的投资,同时也可为政府部门的监管、以及政策的制定提供合理的依据。本文首先阐述了企业财务风险的含义、特点、产生环节,财务风险评价与预警的理论方法和区别与联系。然后,重点阐述了我国房地产企业当前发展的现状及特点、房地产上市公司的财务风险现状及风险来源;在此基础上构建了我国房地产上市公司财务风险评价指标体系。运用主成分分析法对房地产上市公司财务风险进行了评价,并且依据样本公司财务风险综合得分,对样本公司最近3年的财务风险得分排名,较好地反映了房地产上市公司的财务风险水平。选用二元逻辑回归分析对利用主成分分析法提取出的影响企业财务风险的主成分因子,构建Logistic回归模型,并对模型预警效果进行检验。最后,有针对性地提出了我国房地产上市公司财务风险的防控策略。
[Abstract]:Under the situation of economic globalization, especially since the financial crisis of 2008, the global economy is still in the process of gradual recovery. The real estate industry is the pillar industry of our national economy. Therefore, the real estate industry is facing more fierce competition and risks from all aspects. Under such circumstances, objectively evaluating the financial risk level of the real estate industry and timely warning of the financial crisis will not only help the real estate industry to improve its own operating conditions and improve the level of risk management and control, It also helps external investors to make reasonable investment, and can also provide a reasonable basis for government regulation and policy making. This paper first expounds the meaning, characteristics, production links, theoretical methods, differences and relations between financial risk evaluation and early warning. Then, the paper focuses on the current development and characteristics of the real estate enterprises in our country, the financial risk status and risk sources of the listed real estate companies, and then constructs the evaluation index system of the financial risks of the listed real estate companies in our country. This paper uses principal component analysis method to evaluate the financial risk of real estate listed companies, and according to the comprehensive score of financial risk of the sample companies, it ranks the financial risk scores of the sample companies in the last three years. Better reflects the real estate listed companies financial risk level. The logistic regression model is constructed by using the principal component factor which is extracted by principal component analysis method to influence the financial risk of enterprises, and the early warning effect of the model is tested. Finally, the paper puts forward the prevention and control strategy of financial risk of real estate listed companies.
【学位授予单位】：黑龙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.233.42

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