基于系统动力学的鄂尔多斯市资源环境承载力研究

发布时间：2018-07-12 15:01

本文选题：系统动力学 + 鄂尔多斯市　；参考：《中国地质大学(北京)》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着社会的快速发展,资源短缺、环境恶化所带来的问题逐渐成为制约人类生存和发展的关键问题。资源环境承载力是描述社会经济发展与环境资源之间关系的重要指标。因此,明确对承载力产生重要影响的社会经济因素,进而针对自然资源环境的状况对社会经济发展因素进行调控,变为在承载力条件下,协调资源环境保护与社会经济发展的有效方法。基于此,本文通过方法对比,以鄂尔多斯市为例,运用系统动力学中的方法,结合地区资源、环境、经济、社会等方面数据建立鄂尔多斯市资源环境承载力系统动力学模型。通过模拟仿真,分析地区资源环境承载力变化趋势,最后进行灵敏度分析以确定影响资源环境承载力的显著因素来源。研究结果表明,2030年以后鄂尔多斯地区承载力将下降。影响因素方面,在社会经济要素中煤炭开采量的变化是影响环境的主要因素;水资源消耗量的主要影响因素是人口总量;废水废气排放量的主要影响因素是第一产业市场份额。在此基础上,本文得出如下结论:资源环境承载力的主要影响因素包括人口数量、工矿用地、第一产业市场份额及其相关的因素。因此,可通过调整工矿用地、第一产业市场份额与结构实现资源环境与社会经济发展的平衡,使其在资源环境承载的范围内,协调发展。本文通过对影响鄂尔多斯地区的资源环境承载力的重点影响因素进行系统的分析、筛选、研究,可以为鄂尔多斯市范围内的资源环境承载力研究提供科学的依据,使其与后期的评价及相关的方案调整能够有效地结合,为鄂尔多斯市资源环境管理提供参考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of society and the shortage of resources, the problems brought by the deterioration of the environment have gradually become the key problems restricting the survival and development of human beings. The carrying capacity of resources and environment is an important index to describe the relationship between social economic development and environmental resources. Therefore, the social and economic factors that have an important impact on the carrying capacity are clearly defined, and then the factors of social and economic development are regulated according to the state of natural resources and the environment, and become under the condition of carrying capacity. The effective method of coordinating resources and environment protection with social and economic development. Based on this, this paper takes Ordos city as an example, using the method of system dynamics, combining regional resources, environment, economy, society and other data to establish the system dynamics model of the carrying capacity of resources and environment in Ordos city. Through simulation and simulation, the variation trend of regional resource and environment carrying capacity is analyzed. Finally, sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the source of significant factors affecting the resource and environment carrying capacity. The results show that the bearing capacity of Ordos region will decrease after 2030. In terms of influencing factors, the change of coal extraction is the main factor affecting the environment, the main influencing factor of water consumption is the total population, and the main influencing factor of waste gas discharge is the market share of primary industry. On this basis, this paper draws the following conclusions: the main influencing factors of the carrying capacity of resources and environment include population, industrial and mining land, market share of primary industry and related factors. Therefore, by adjusting the industrial and mining land, the market share and structure of the primary industry can achieve the balance between the resource environment and the social economic development, so that it can develop harmoniously within the bearing range of the resources and environment. Through systematic analysis, screening and research on the key factors affecting the carrying capacity of resources and environment in Ordos area, this paper can provide a scientific basis for the study of the carrying capacity of resources and environment in Ordos. So that it can be effectively combined with the later stage evaluation and related program adjustment, and provide a reference for the resource and environment management of Ordos city.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：N941.3;F299.27

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