赣州市住宅价格时空分异及演变规律研究

发布时间：2018-08-18 14:07

【摘要】：随着我国住房制度的改革及市场经济的推动,我国房地产事业正蓬勃发展。然而随着房地产快速发展的同时,也引发了众多社会问题。许多城市住宅价格居高不下,使得商品住宅价格问题日渐成为政府、社会各界及学者们关心的焦点话题。本文以赣州市为研究区域,通过GIS技术,分析住宅价格在时间和空间上的变化特征,旨在揭示赣州市住宅价格的时空分异及其演变规律,为今后居民购房、房地产开发选址及制定合理价格提供帮助,也可以为政府实施规划提供依据。本文以赣州市在建在售商品住宅价格为研究对象,利用ARCGIS、Geoda、Geosharp等软件,首先收集整理2012-2015年住宅价格资料,分析其在时间序列上的变化特征,并进行地址匹配,建立住宅价格空间数据库;再通过住宅价格的空间自相关分析及趋势性分析,揭示赣州市住宅价格的空间相关性及三维变化趋势;然后对各年份的数据进行变异分析和Kriging插值分析,并在此插值结果上绘制等值线,分析住宅价格的空间分布格局;最后总结得出赣州市住宅价格的时空演变规律,并进一步探究其驱动因素。通过研究得出以下主要结论:(1)从时间格局变化分析,可以看出2012-2015年赣州市住宅价格整体呈现上涨的趋势;(2)通过各年度全局Moran's I指数的计算可知,住宅价格在空间分布上具有显著的集聚现象,而通过局部空间自相关性分析发现,从2012-2015年赣州市住宅价格高值区有往南移动的趋势;(3)通过变异分析,研究发现赣州市住宅价格在不同方向具有不同的结构特征,表现各向异性;(4)根据kriging插值分析,得出赣州市存在两个主要住宅价格中心,分别是赞贤路与长征大道交汇处附近和中央生态公园周边;(5)赣州市住宅价格时空分异及演变存在以下规律:住宅价格在空间分布上整体由“中心”向周边圈层式递减,同时河流及大型水域、交通干道周围会发展成为高端地产汇集区,城市规划及政府政策对赣州房地产发展起重要作用,以旅游带动地产发展的运营模式对水东片区有一定影响;(6)缓冲区定性分析得出赣州市住宅价格时空分异及其演变的主要驱动因素是基础配套设施、交通条件、商业中心、政策及城市规划、自然生态环境等。
[Abstract]:With the reform of housing system and the promotion of market economy, the real estate industry is booming. However, with the rapid development of real estate, it has also caused many social problems. The high price of housing in many cities makes the issue of commodity housing price become the focus of attention of the government, social circles and scholars. This article takes Ganzhou as the research area, through the GIS technology, analyzes the housing price in the time and the space change characteristic, in order to reveal the Ganzhou city housing price time and space differentiation and the evolution rule, buys the house for the future resident. Real estate development site selection and the establishment of reasonable prices to help, but also for the implementation of government planning to provide the basis. In this paper, taking the price of the housing under construction in Ganzhou as the research object, using ARCGIS-Geodasharp and other softwares, this paper first collects and collates the housing price data for 2012-2015, analyzes its changing characteristics in time series, and carries on the address matching. Through the spatial autocorrelation analysis and trend analysis of housing price, the spatial correlation and three-dimensional change trend of housing price in Ganzhou city are revealed. Then, the variation analysis and Kriging interpolation analysis of the data of each year are carried out, and the isoline is drawn on the interpolation result to analyze the spatial distribution pattern of housing price. Finally, the temporal and spatial evolution law of housing price in Ganzhou city is concluded. And further explore its driving factors. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) from the analysis of the change of time pattern, we can see that the housing price in Ganzhou City from 2012 to 2015 presents a rising trend; (2) through the calculation of the global Moran's I index in each year, we can know that, The housing price has a remarkable agglomeration phenomenon in the spatial distribution, and through the local spatial autocorrelation analysis, it is found that there is a trend of moving southward from the high value area of housing price in Ganzhou City from 2012-2015; (3) through the variation analysis, It is found that the housing price in Ganzhou city has different structural characteristics and anisotropy in different directions. (4) according to the kriging interpolation analysis, it is concluded that there are two main housing price centers in Ganzhou City. It is located near the intersection of Zan Xian Road and Changzheng Avenue and around the Central Ecological Park. (5) the temporal and spatial differentiation and evolution of housing prices in Ganzhou City have the following laws: the overall spatial distribution of housing prices has decreased from "center" to peripheral layer. At the same time, rivers and large water areas, the surrounding traffic roads will develop into high-end real estate gathering areas. Urban planning and government policies play an important role in the development of Ganzhou real estate. (6) the qualitative analysis of buffer zone shows that the main driving factors of the spatial and temporal differentiation and evolution of housing prices in Ganzhou are infrastructure, traffic conditions, commercial center, etc. Policy and urban planning, natural ecological environment, etc.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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