失业呆滞、货币政策与Evans规则

发布时间：2018-08-25 18:00

【摘要】：已有研究表明,失业呆滞显著存在于我国的劳动力市场。基于这一事实,本文建立了一个包含失业呆滞的NK-DSGE模型,并分析了失业呆滞显著存在背景下基准货币政策与Evans规则的效应。研究发现,在基准货币政策机制下,失业呆滞使得逆向货币政策冲击对于宏观经济造成了"永久性伤害",并且使得货币政策冲击效应具有显著的非对称性特征。在此基础上,本文进一步分析了Evans规则的效应。结果表明,在失业呆滞显著存在的背景下,我国中央银行仍可以使用Evans规则以稳定劳动力市场,并且应该赋予失业更大的权重。因此,对我国劳动力市场失业呆滞的成因进行剖析,科学估算失业呆滞对于货币政策效应的影响,是发挥货币政策以及Evans规则积极作用的重要前提。
[Abstract]:Studies have shown that unemployment lacklustre significantly exists in China's labor market. Based on this fact, this paper establishes a NK-DSGE model with unemployment stagnation, and analyzes the effects of benchmark monetary policy and Evans rules on unemployment stagnation. It is found that under the benchmark monetary policy mechanism, unemployment lacklustre makes the adverse monetary policy impact "permanent harm" to the macro economy, and makes the monetary policy shock effect have significant asymmetric characteristics. On this basis, the effect of Evans rule is further analyzed. The results show that the central bank of our country can still use Evans rules to stabilize the labor market under the background of obvious unemployment stagnation and should give more weight to unemployment. Therefore, to analyze the causes of unemployment stagnation in China's labor market and to estimate scientifically the effect of unemployment stagnation on monetary policy is an important prerequisite for giving full play to the positive role of monetary policy and Evans rules.
【作者单位】：中共广东省委党校经济学教研部;中国社会科学院经济研究所;广东财经大学国民经济研究中心;
【基金】：作者主持的广东省哲学社会科学“十二五”规划学科共建项目“劳动力市场结构性改革与中国经济波动研究——基于动态新凯恩斯主义的视角”(GD14XYJ02)的部分研究成果
【分类号】：F249.2;F822.0

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