典型资源型城市脆弱性评估及预测研究——以焦作—大庆—铜陵—白山市为例
发布时间：2018-09-07 17:37
【摘要】：目前,资源型城市脆弱性研究已经成为推进资源型城市可持续发展与社会现代化建设过程中关注的热点问题。文章以焦作—大庆—铜陵—白山市4个不同类型资源型城市为研究对象,运用集对分析法(SPA)和趋势外推法对其脆弱性进行评估及预测,以探究不同类型资源型城市脆弱性的变化规律,并揭示其脆弱性水平在未来10年的波动特征并进行对比分析。结果表明:2003-2015年间,各城市的脆弱性指数平均值呈铜陵市=焦作市白山市=大庆市,且截止到2015年,铜陵、焦作和大庆均处于中等脆弱水平,白山市处于较低脆弱水平;截止到2025年,白山市将会由2015年的较低脆弱水平下降至低脆弱度水平;大庆市将由中等脆弱度水平下降至低脆弱度水平;而铜陵和焦作市将会由中等脆弱度下降至较低脆弱度,这4个城市的脆弱性程度将呈铜陵市焦作市大庆市白山市。最后,结合实证结果,提出具体调控对策。
[Abstract]:At present, the research on vulnerability of resource-based cities has become a hot issue in the process of promoting sustainable development and social modernization of resource-based cities. In this paper, four different types of resource-based cities, Jiaozuo, Daqing, Tongling and Baishan City, were used to evaluate and predict their vulnerability by means of set pair analysis (SPA) and trend extrapolation. In order to explore the changes of vulnerability of different types of resource-based cities, and to reveal the fluctuation characteristics of vulnerability level in the next 10 years and to carry out a comparative analysis. The results showed that the average value of vulnerability index of each city was Tongling City = Baishan City = Daqing City from 2003 to 2015, and by 2015, Tongling, Jiaozuo and Daqing were all in the middle fragile level, while Baishan City was in the low fragile level. By 2025, Baishan will be reduced from a low vulnerability level in 2015 to a low vulnerability level; Daqing City will have a moderate vulnerability level to a low vulnerability level; and Tongling and Jiaozuo City will have a low vulnerability level from a moderate vulnerability level to a lower vulnerability level. The vulnerability of these four cities will be Tongling City Jiaozuo Daqing Baishan City. Finally, combined with the empirical results, specific control measures are put forward.
【作者单位】： 中国人民大学经济学院;河南财经政法大学经济学院;江苏师范大学商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71272160;71673022)
【分类号】：F299.27
，
本文编号：2228951
[Abstract]:At present, the research on vulnerability of resource-based cities has become a hot issue in the process of promoting sustainable development and social modernization of resource-based cities. In this paper, four different types of resource-based cities, Jiaozuo, Daqing, Tongling and Baishan City, were used to evaluate and predict their vulnerability by means of set pair analysis (SPA) and trend extrapolation. In order to explore the changes of vulnerability of different types of resource-based cities, and to reveal the fluctuation characteristics of vulnerability level in the next 10 years and to carry out a comparative analysis. The results showed that the average value of vulnerability index of each city was Tongling City = Baishan City = Daqing City from 2003 to 2015, and by 2015, Tongling, Jiaozuo and Daqing were all in the middle fragile level, while Baishan City was in the low fragile level. By 2025, Baishan will be reduced from a low vulnerability level in 2015 to a low vulnerability level; Daqing City will have a moderate vulnerability level to a low vulnerability level; and Tongling and Jiaozuo City will have a low vulnerability level from a moderate vulnerability level to a lower vulnerability level. The vulnerability of these four cities will be Tongling City Jiaozuo Daqing Baishan City. Finally, combined with the empirical results, specific control measures are put forward.
【作者单位】： 中国人民大学经济学院;河南财经政法大学经济学院;江苏师范大学商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71272160;71673022)
【分类号】：F299.27
，
本文编号：2228951
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