基于风险分担的PPP项目物有所值评价研究

发布时间：2018-09-08 11:43

【摘要】：随着PPP模式热潮的到来,2014年以来,国家颁布了大量PPP政策和法规,以促进和支持PPP模式发展。各地政府纷纷开始采用PPP模式提供基础设施和公共服务,大量的推进PPP项目发展。随着大规模的PPP项目落地,由于PPP模式的运用尚有不完善和不成熟之处,PPP模式只是提供基础设施产品或服务的选项之一,政府不能主观偏好某一采购模式或否定某一模式,应当有科学的可量化的依据来判断该模式是否物有所值(Value for Money,简称VFM)。本研究旨在通过分析PPP项目的风险管理过程,深入研究风险分担对PPP物有所值定量评价的影响,基于风险分担结果,构建符合中国国情的物有所值定量评价模型,对VFM的计算提供较为科学合理的计算方法,为政府对PPP项目成本、效果等方面的评估提供参考。首先,通过对PPP模式、PPP风险管理、PPP物有所值定量评价的理论基础和概念进行界定,在分析PPP物有所值的影响因素后,发现风险分担结果表现为保留风险值和可转移风险值对物有所值定量评价有至关重要的影响。其次,在此基础上,全面分析了 VFM中的PPP项目风险,详细分析了风险分担如何影响物有所值定量评价结果,对风险损失的评估、风险概率统计提出科学的方法进行计算,并深入研究了风险分担和物有所值定量评价之间的关系,为建立基于风险分担的PPP项目物有所值评价模型奠定了基础。接下来,在总结和分析我国PPP项目的基本运作模式和特点的基础上,结合中国的法律法规具体情况,识别出的VFM评价模型中的主要指标,如:初始PSC、竞争中立涉及到的因素,形成完整的PPP项目评价模型,提出了适用于中国PPP项目基于风险分担的PPP物有所值定量评价模型。最后,选择了 J市经开区的一个PPP项目作为案例项目,通过走访、查阅、调研等方式获取到项目的相关数据,并将新构建的基于风险分担的VFM定量评价模型应用到案例项目中,对其进行验证和实践,为PPP项目的物有所值评价提供可量化依据,为政府对PPP模式的决策选择提供参考。
[Abstract]:With the arrival of PPP mode upsurge, China has promulgated a large number of PPP policies and regulations since 2014 to promote and support the development of PPP model. Local governments began to use the PPP model to provide infrastructure and public services, a large number of PPP projects to promote the development. As large-scale PPP projects hit the ground, because the use of the PPP model is still imperfect and immature, the PPP model is only one of the options for providing infrastructure products or services. There should be a scientific quantifiable basis for determining whether the model is worth the value for money (Value for Money, for short VFM). The purpose of this study is to analyze the risk management process of PPP projects, and to study the impact of risk sharing on the quantitative evaluation of PPP value for money. Based on the results of risk sharing, a quantitative evaluation model of value for money in accordance with the national conditions of China is constructed. This paper provides a scientific and reasonable calculation method for VFM calculation, and provides a reference for the government to evaluate the cost and effect of PPP project. First of all, by defining the theoretical basis and concept of PPP risk management and quantitative evaluation of PPP value for money, after analyzing the influencing factors of PPP value for money, It is found that the risk sharing results show that the retained risk value and transferable risk value play an important role in the quantitative evaluation of value for money. Secondly, on this basis, the paper analyzes the risk of PPP project in VFM, analyzes in detail how risk sharing affects the quantitative evaluation results of value for money, and puts forward a scientific method to calculate the risk loss and risk probability statistics. The relationship between risk sharing and quantitative evaluation of value for money is deeply studied, which lays a foundation for establishing the model of PPP project value for money evaluation based on risk sharing. Then, on the basis of summarizing and analyzing the basic operating mode and characteristics of PPP projects in China, combined with the specific situation of China's laws and regulations, the main indicators of the VFM evaluation model are identified, such as: the factors involved in the initial PSC, competition. A complete evaluation model of PPP project is formed, and a quantitative evaluation model of PPP value for money based on risk sharing for Chinese PPP project is put forward. Finally, a PPP project in Jingkai District of J City is selected as a case project, and the relevant data of the project are obtained by visiting, consulting, investigating and so on. The new VFM quantitative evaluation model based on risk sharing is applied to the case project, and it is verified and practiced to provide the quantifiable basis for the evaluation of the value for money of the PPP project and the reference for the government to choose the PPP model.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283

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