开征房产税对我国住宅商品房价格的影响研究

发布时间：2018-10-09 07:49

【摘要】：自从1998年我国房地产市场改革以来,房地产行业成为国民经济增长点,随着经济发展和社会进步,一线城市以及部分“新一线”城市房地产价格迅猛上涨,东西部地区差异明显,市场出现调节失灵的现象,我国房地产市场格局混乱。现如今国家需要出台强有力的政策措施来整治房地产市场非理性房价,使房地产市场回归理性,健康稳定有序的发展。2011年1月28日,国务院决定把上海和重庆作为开征房产税的试点,全国人民对开征房产税政策寄予厚望。基于以上背景,本文首先通过对我国房产税历年政策回顾,重点阐述房产税试点改革内容及成效对比分析,并通过与国外发达国家房地产制度作对比,根据我国基本国情,借鉴相关制度经验;然后根据房产税和房地产市场相关理论基础,对开征房产税对我国住宅商品房价格传导机制和理论分析进行详细阐述;在此基础上选取我国35个大中城市的数据运用双重差分模型进行实证分析,剔除其他政策效应的影响,使用GMM方法进行检验开征房产税政策对我国住宅商品房价格是否有抑制作用以及居民对政策是否形成政策预期效应;最终得出结论居民对开征房产税并没有形成预期效应,根据实证结果演示,开征房产税的政策预期效应交互项系数为(-0.0664)为负,但是不显著,说明开征房产税对我国住宅商品房价格影响有限,结合现状分析当中与其他城市之间的对比分析,可以得出短期内开征房产税对我国住宅商品房价格有一定的抑制作用但是长期效果不明显,同时从房地产市场需求、房地产市场供给和政策实施过程三个角度分析了原因,最后结合我国的基本国情提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of China's real estate market in 1998, the real estate industry has become a growth point of the national economy. With economic development and social progress, the real estate prices of first-tier cities and some "new first-tier" cities have risen rapidly. The difference between the east and the west is obvious, the market is out of order, and the real estate market pattern in our country is chaotic. Nowadays, the country needs to introduce strong policies and measures to regulate the irrational housing prices in the real estate market, so that the real estate market can return to rationality and develop healthily, steadily and orderly. January 28, 2011, The State Council decided to set Shanghai and Chongqing as the pilot of levying property tax, and people all over the country have high hopes for the property tax. Based on the above background, this paper first through the review of China's property tax policy, focusing on the content and effectiveness of the property tax pilot reform comparative analysis, and by comparing with developed countries real estate system, according to the basic conditions of our country, Then, according to the theoretical basis of real estate tax and real estate market, the transmission mechanism and theoretical analysis of the real estate tax on the price of our country's commercial housing are elaborated in detail. On this basis, the data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China are selected for empirical analysis by using the double difference model, and the influence of other policy effects is eliminated. Using the method of GMM to test whether the policy of levying real estate tax has a restraining effect on the price of commercial housing in our country and whether the residents have the expected effect on the policy, and finally comes to the conclusion that the residents do not have the expected effect on the levying of real estate tax. According to the empirical results, the interaction coefficient of policy expectation effect of levying real estate tax is negative (-0.0664), but not significant, which indicates that the effect of levying real estate tax on the price of commercial housing in China is limited. In combination with the comparative analysis between the current situation analysis and other cities, it can be concluded that the introduction of real estate tax in the short term has a certain restraining effect on the prices of commercial housing in our country, but the long-term effect is not obvious. At the same time, from the demand of the real estate market, This paper analyzes the reasons of the supply of real estate market and the process of policy implementation, and finally puts forward corresponding policy suggestions according to the basic conditions of our country.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.42;F299.23

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