中部六省省会城市房地产与城市经济协调发展的耦合研究

发布时间：2018-10-10 12:06

【摘要】：房地产业与城市经济发展相互制约、相互促进。如何实现两者协调发展,一直是全社会关注的热点问题和研究主题。在“中部崛起战略”背景下,中部六省省会城市经济发展进入快速通道。同时2015年底开始,国内房价格明显上涨,其中中部六省省会城市房价涨幅最为严重,房地产与城市经济发展出现偏差,因此研究中部地区省会城市房地产业与城市经济之间的动态协调发展,实现房地产调控政策的精准性具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文拟研究中部六省省会城市房地产与城市经济协调发展,首先对中部六省省会城市房地产业与城市经济现状及发展进行了描述统计分析,并从土地财政、房地产投资结构、房价收入比等角度对房地产业与城市经济不协调情况进行了分析。然后在耦合协调度模型的框架下,构建综合评价指标体系,测度2005-2014年各城市房地产与城市经济系统耦合协调度,从横向、纵向角度分析其时空特征,依据耦合协调度值和滞后超前情况划分不同协调类型城市,最后通过GM(1,1)模型演化2005-2020年中部地区省会城市房地产与城市经济耦合协调度的发展过程和等级格局。研究发现:(1)2005-2014年中部地区省会城市城市经济系统增速整体高于房地产系统,城市经济子系统发展领先。(2)2005-2014年,中部6省会城市的房地产与城市经济系统耦合度处于颉颃阶段,尚未充分发挥促进带动功效,即将跨入磨合阶段,整体处于轻度失调阶段,城市子系统相对比较滞后。(3)中部六省省会城市整体协调度曲线在2005-2010年为协调度波动调整期,属于轻度失调阶段,在2011-2014年为协调度稳步上升期,协调度D值保持稳定上行,即将突破勉强协调阶段,但其增速明显放缓。(4)根据协调度及1 2uu值,将城市划分为3种类型,其中合肥属于轻度失调城市经济滞后型,太原、南昌属于轻度失调房地产滞后型,武汉、郑州、长沙属于濒临失调城市滞后型。(5)到2020年,中部六省省会城市房地产与城市经济耦合协调情况将形成武汉优质协调,郑州良好协调,长沙、合肥中级协调,太原、南昌勉强协调的格局。(4)为促进城市经济与房地产系统耦合协调发展,结合研究结果提出了针对各城市不同现状的实有效、可行建议。
[Abstract]:Real estate industry and city economy development mutually restrict, promote each other. How to realize the harmonious development of the two has always been a hot issue and research topic of the whole society. Under the background of "Central rising Strategy", the economic development of provincial capitals of six central provinces has entered a fast passage. At the same time, since the end of 2015, domestic housing prices have risen significantly, with the most serious increase in housing prices in the provincial capitals of the six central provinces, and the deviation between real estate and urban economic development. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the dynamic and coordinated development between the real estate industry and the urban economy of the provincial capital cities in the central region, and to realize the precision of the real estate regulation and control policies. This paper intends to study the coordinated development of real estate and urban economy in the provincial capitals of six central provinces. Firstly, it describes the present situation and development of real estate and urban economy in the six provincial capitals of central China, and analyzes the structure of land finance and real estate investment from the perspective of land finance and real estate investment structure. The paper analyzes the disharmony between real estate industry and urban economy from the angle of house price income ratio. Then, under the framework of coupling coordination degree model, a comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed to measure the coupling coordination degree between urban real estate and urban economic system from 2005 to 2014, and analyze its temporal and spatial characteristics from a horizontal and vertical perspective. According to the value of coupling coordination degree and the situation of lag ahead, different types of coordinated cities are divided. Finally, the development process and hierarchy of the coupling coordination degree between real estate and urban economy of provincial capital cities in central China from 2005 to 2020 is evolved by GM (1 / 1) model. The results show that: (1) from 2005 to 2014, the economic system of provincial capitals in central China grew faster than that of real estate, and the development of urban economic subsystem was in the lead. (2) from 2005 to 2014, the coupling degree between real estate and urban economic system in the six provincial capitals of central China was in an antagonistic stage. The efficiency of promoting driving has not been given full play, and it is about to enter the running-in stage, the whole is in the stage of slight imbalance, and the urban subsystem is relatively lagging behind. (3) the overall coordination degree curve of the provincial capitals of the six central provinces is the period of the fluctuation and adjustment of the coordination degree in 2005-2010. It belongs to the mild maladjustment stage. In the period 2011-2014, the coordination degree D value keeps steady upward and will break through the barely coordinated stage, but its growth rate obviously slows down. (4) according to the coordination degree and 1 2uu value, the city is divided into three types. Among them, Hefei belongs to the laggard type of light maladjusted city economy, Taiyuan and Nanchang belong to the lagged type of light misaligned real estate, Wuhan, Zhengzhou and Changsha belong to the lagging type of borderline maladjusted city. (5) by 2020, The coupling and coordination of real estate and urban economy in the provincial capitals of six central provinces will form high-quality coordination in Wuhan, good coordination in Zhengzhou, intermediate coordination in Changsha and Hefei, and Taiyuan, Nanchang reluctantly coordinated pattern. (4) in order to promote the coordinated development of urban economy and real estate system, combined with the research results, the paper puts forward some effective and feasible suggestions for different cities.
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.27

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