中国城镇化2050:SD模型与过程模拟

发布时间：2018-10-30 08:03

【摘要】：中国城镇化过程究竟是一个长期的过程还是政府短期可以实现的目标?中国趋向稳定状态的城镇化水平是多少?哪一年将可能基本完成中国城镇化的过程?本文通过建立中国城镇化系统动力学(SD)模型,采用1998~2013年数据进行系统存流量检验和系统灵敏度分析,结果显示所建中国城镇化SD模型有效且具有实际仿真可操作性.运用2013年数据和系统参数进行中国城镇化过程多情景模拟(2013~2050)显示,无论哪种人口政策和GDP增长率,中国城镇化水平到2035年都将达到70%以上,中国城镇化过程进入低增长阶段;到2050年,中国城镇化水平将达到75%左右,中国城镇化进入稳定和饱和状态.据此,可以认为:中国城镇化过程是一个长期的社会发展过程,还需要20年才能基本完成这一过程.中国城镇化水平最终的饱和状态在75~80%,在长远的未来仍将有20~25%的人口分布在广大农村地区.
[Abstract]:Is China's urbanization a long-term process or a short-term goal that the government can achieve? What is the level of urbanization that China is moving towards a stable state? What year will it be possible to basically complete the process of urbanization in China? In this paper, the dynamic (SD) model of urbanization system in China is established, and the data from 1998 to 2013 are used to test the system flow and the sensitivity of the system. The results show that the SD model is effective and practical. Using 2013 data and system parameters to simulate the urbanization process in China (2013C2050), it is shown that no matter what kind of population policy or GDP growth rate, China's urbanization level will reach more than 70% by 2035. The process of urbanization in China has entered the stage of low growth; By 2050, China's urbanization level will reach about 75 percent, China's urbanization into a stable and saturated state. It can be concluded that the urbanization process of China is a long-term process of social development, and it will take 20 years to complete the process. The final saturation of China's urbanization level is 75%, and in the long run, 20% to 25% of the population will be distributed in the vast rural areas.
【作者单位】：清华大学建筑学院;南京师范大学地理科学学院;华中科技大学建筑与城市规划学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大项目(批准号:41590844) 清华大学自主科研计划项目(编号:2015THZ01)资助
【分类号】：F299.21

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