基于贝叶斯网络的混合融资PPP项目特许期的影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-11-14 16:33

【摘要】：在基础设施建设领域中统筹推进政府和社会资本合作(Public Private Partnership,PPP),提升我国公共服务建设的效率和质量,是目前我国公共服务领域深化改革的一项重要举措。近几年,财政部等相继印发了关于PPP项目财政管理的政策文件,为进一步促进混合融资模式在国内公共服务领域的应用和推广提供了保障。PPP项目的关注点较多,核心问题之一在于如何确定混合融资项目的特许期。由于受到自然环境、政策法规、经济环境等多种不确定因素的影响,导致基础设施建设项目面临各种风险,其直接结果是项目成本超支或延期交付。本文针对混合融资模式下PPP项目特许期决策的一些不确定影响因素进行分析,建立基于贝叶斯网络的HFPPP特许期模型,并给出模型的概率推理及分析过程。论文的研究工作如下:(1)文章通过文献回顾了已有研究中关于PPP项目研究的热点问题及PPP项目特许期的研究现状,并对HFPPP模式下项目特许期的概念和影响因素进行了描述。交通项目特许期内的经营收入主要由车流量和收费价格决定,成本支出主要受材料价格和人工成本影响。(2)将贝叶斯网络模型进行改进,定义了基础设施建设项目特许期贝叶斯网络模型结构,将影响项目特许期内运营收支的不确定因素引入贝叶斯网络模型节点。同时,描述了HFPPP项目特许期贝叶斯网络的建模过程。(3)在建模过程中也提出了贝叶斯网络的概率推理算法和净现值方法。同时,将HFPPP项目生命周期进行阶段划分,针对不同阶段经济发展水平及物价水平的变化,对项目特许期内的经营收入和支出的净现值进行分析,在符合项目可行性和收益最大化的前提下,确定最佳的项目特许期时间跨度。(4)运用HFPPP项目特许期贝叶斯网络模型对某高速公路项目进行案例分析,进一步验证了基于贝叶斯网络的HFPPP项目特许期模型的可行性和有效性。通过以上研究表明:贝叶斯网络模型与现金流量净现值法相结合,可以对HFPPP项目特许期不同影响因素相互作用的可能性进行定量预测,在满足项目可行性的前提下,运营期收支组合概率的最大化标准及净现值最大化标准可以满足项目持续运营的基本要求。因此,投资双方可以在最有利的方式下进行HFPPP项目的投资管理,在此基础上,计算出一个合理的特许经营期。当项目生命周期的划分单位趋向于缩小时,预测将变的更加准确。
[Abstract]:In the field of infrastructure construction, it is an important measure to promote the cooperation between government and social capital (Public Private Partnership,PPP) and to improve the efficiency and quality of public service construction in China. In recent years, the Ministry of Finance and others have issued policy documents on the financial management of PPP projects, which provide a guarantee for further promoting the application and popularization of the mixed financing model in the domestic public service field. The PPP project pays more attention to it. One of the core issues is how to determine the concessionary period of a mixed financing project. Due to the influence of many uncertain factors, such as natural environment, policies and regulations, economic environment, the infrastructure construction project faces various risks. The direct result is the cost overrun or the delay of delivery of the project. In this paper, we analyze some uncertain factors that influence the decision of concession period of PPP project under mixed financing mode, establish the HFPPP concession period model based on Bayesian network, and give the probabilistic reasoning and analysis process of the model. The research work of this paper is as follows: (1) this paper reviews the hot issues of PPP project research and the current research status of PPP project concession period through literature, and describes the concept and influencing factors of project concession period under HFPPP mode. The operating income of transportation project during the concession period is mainly determined by the traffic flow and the charge price, and the cost expenditure is mainly affected by the material price and labor cost. (2) the Bayesian network model is improved. In this paper, the Bayesian network model structure of infrastructure construction project is defined, and the uncertain factors that affect the operating income and expenditure during the concession period are introduced into the Bayesian network model node. At the same time, the modeling process of Bayesian network in concession period of HFPPP project is described. (3) in the process of modeling, the probabilistic reasoning algorithm and net present value method of Bayesian network are also proposed. At the same time, the HFPPP project life cycle is divided into stages. According to the changes of economic development level and price level in different stages, the net present value of operating income and expenditure during the concession period of the project is analyzed. According to the premise of project feasibility and profit maximization, the best time span of project concession period is determined. (4) A case study of a highway project is carried out by using the Bayesian network model of HFPPP project concession period. The feasibility and effectiveness of the HFPPP project concession model based on Bayesian network are further verified. The results show that the combination of Bayesian network model and cash flow net present value method can predict quantitatively the possibility of the interaction of different influencing factors in the concession period of HFPPP project and satisfy the feasibility of the project. The maximization criteria of combination probability and net present value of operating period can meet the basic requirements of continuous operation of the project. Therefore, the investment management of HFPPP project can be carried out in the most advantageous way, and a reasonable franchise period can be calculated on this basis. As the division of the project lifecycle tends to shrink, the prediction becomes more accurate.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283

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