需求吸纳和土地挤占影响下的保障性住房建设与住宅价格联动研究—35个大中城市面板数据的应用

发布时间：2018-11-18 13:01

【摘要】：保障性住房作为政府提供的政策性住房,一直是国内外学者关注的焦点,随着国内房价的高涨,住房问题日益凸显,住房保障的重要性不言而喻。政府不断加大的保障性住房建设力度,使得人们更加关注其对商品房价格产生的影响作用,冀望于通过保障性住房抑制商品房价格过快上涨。然而,细究国内外研究文献,国外文献更多关于挤出效应、住房过滤、住房福利等研究,国内研究关于保障性住房对商品房价格的影响,出现抑制房价和提升房价两种不同的声音,并无明确定论。究其原因,两种结论分别从住房需求和土地供给两种角度出发得出。一方面保障性住房会从商品房市场吸纳一部分住房需求,使住房需求减少进而促使房价下降;另一方面建设保障性住房会挤占商品房土地供给,造成商品房市场土地供应减少,地价上涨加之商品房供应不足导致房价上涨,然而,现实情况是两种影响同时存在。另外,现有研究大多采用省级数据以商品房市场作为整体,忽略了住房市场的异质性和商品房种类的差异。鉴于此,本文综合考虑保障性住房吸纳住房需求和挤占土地供给两因素,采用国内35个大中城市的面板数据,将保障性住房影响最大的商品住宅从商品房类型中分离出,并进一步将商品住宅划分为普通商品住宅和高档商品住宅,分别研究产生的影响,以求深入分析这一问题,试图回答“保障性住房对商品住宅价格造成何种影响”的问题。本文首先综述了国内外学者关于保障性住房对商品房市场的影响研究,重点分析了对商品房价格的影响文献;然后阐述了保障性住房对商品房价格的影响机制,理清对商品房供给和需求的影响路径;最后利用35个大中城市的面板数据,分别构建面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)和固定效应变系数模型,对普通商品住宅和高档商品住宅进行实证研究。研究得出如下结论:(1)保障性住房因吸纳住房需求会抑制商品住宅价格,因挤占土地供给会提升商品住宅价格。(2)保障性住房对普通商品住宅价格整体表现为抑制作用,对高档商品住宅价格整体表现为提升作用。(3)保障性住房吸纳住房需求和挤占土地供给两因素,对商品住宅价格影响在城市间皆存在差异。(4)分城市来看,普通、高档商品住宅受到的保障性住房产生的综合影响明显不同。
[Abstract]:As the policy housing provided by the government, affordable housing has always been the focus of attention of scholars at home and abroad. With the rising of domestic housing prices, housing problems become increasingly prominent, the importance of housing security is self-evident. The government's increasing construction of affordable housing makes people pay more attention to its impact on the price of commercial housing, hoping to curb the rapid rise of commodity housing prices through affordable housing. However, the domestic and foreign research literature, foreign literature more on the extrusion effect, housing filtering, housing welfare and other studies, domestic research on the impact of affordable housing on the price of commercial housing, There are two different voices to curb house prices and raise prices, and there is no clear conclusion. Investigate its reason, two kinds of conclusion separately from housing demand and land supply two kinds of angle arrive at. On the one hand, the indemnificatory housing will absorb part of the housing demand from the commercial housing market, which will reduce the housing demand and then promote the decline of housing prices; On the other hand, the construction of affordable housing will squeeze out the land supply of commercial housing, resulting in the reduction of land supply in the commercial housing market, and the rise of land price and the insufficient supply of commercial housing will lead to the rise of house prices. However, the reality is that the two kinds of effects exist at the same time. In addition, most of the existing studies take the commercial housing market as a whole, ignoring the heterogeneity of the housing market and the difference of the types of commercial housing. In view of this, this paper synthetically considers the two factors of housing demand and land supply, and uses panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China to separate out the commercial housing which has the greatest impact on affordable housing from the type of commercial housing. The commercial housing is further divided into ordinary commercial housing and high-grade commercial housing, and the effects are studied respectively, in order to analyze this problem in depth and try to answer the question of "what kind of impact on the commodity housing price caused by the indemnificatory housing". This paper first summarizes the research on the impact of affordable housing on the commercial housing market at home and abroad, focusing on the impact on the price of commercial housing literature; Then it expounds the influence mechanism of the indemnificatory housing on the commodity housing price, and clarifies the influence path to the supply and demand of the commercial housing. Finally, the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities are used to construct the panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR) and the fixed effect variable coefficient model, respectively. The conclusions of the study are as follows: (1) the demand for affordable housing will restrain the price of commercial housing. Because the overrun of land supply will raise the price of commercial housing. (2) the overall performance of affordable housing on the price of ordinary commercial housing is a restraining effect. The overall performance of the upscale commodity housing price is to enhance the function. (3) the two factors of housing demand absorption and land overrun are different between cities. (4) from the urban point of view, ordinary, The comprehensive influence of the supportable housing of the high-grade commodity residence is obviously different.
【学位授予单位】：深圳大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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