非经营性公路VFM定量评价应用研究
发布时间：2018-11-20 21:16
【摘要】：本文参照并借鉴国内外PPP项目VFM定量评价的理论及应用实践,结合我国非经营性公路建设项目的特点及本土化环境,研究非经营性PPP项目VFM定量评价的可操作性措施,在此基础上提出未来的发展方向及改进建议,从而为我国VFM定量评价提供理论及实践参考。全文主要采用案例分析法,以J县北环线公路PPP项目为例,结合专家咨询、文献资料研究、定性与定量分析相结合等研究方法,阐述了非经营性公路的特性,构建了 PSC法下的VFM评价模型,对其中的关键参数如折现率、风险损失系数、社会投资方的合理利润率等运用方法进行了分析。结合实际案例,对模型中的两大核心指标PSC值、PPP值的架构及指标因子进行了测算,并延伸性运用了敏感性分析技术对评价模型的适用性进行了阐释,解决了应用中的一些难点或困惑问题,主要得出了以下结论:1.将PSC法运用于我国非经营PPP项目VFM定量评价,应有结合我国具体国情构建具有针对性的评价模型及参数指标以保证数据来源的合理性。2.折现率的高低对VFM评价结论影响很大,取值不当可能导致评价结论取伪性或弃真性失误,有必要对我国现有评价模型中的折现率进行修正。从政府资金成本角度出发,不能简单参照地方政府同期债券利率,可借助CAPM模型引入风险转移系数等对折现率加以修正,建立适合我国国情的折现率体系。3.通过VFM敏感性分析,可以帮助PPP项目决策者识别影响VFM结论的敏感性因素;通过VFM临界点分析,有助于决策者界定影响VFM结论的极限值及可容忍变动幅度而不至于出现决策失误。4.借助敏感性分析,将VFM作为一种管理手段,可对PPP项目实施监测和VFM的修正,从项目全寿命周期的角度贯彻物有所值的理念。
[Abstract]:Referring to the theory and practice of VFM quantitative evaluation of PPP projects at home and abroad, combining with the characteristics and localization environment of non-commercial highway construction projects in China, this paper studies the operable measures of VFM quantitative evaluation for non-profit-making PPP projects. On this basis, the future direction of development and suggestions for improvement are put forward, thus providing theoretical and practical reference for quantitative evaluation of VFM in China. This paper mainly adopts the case analysis method, taking the PPP project of the Northern Loop Road in J County as an example, combining the research methods of expert consultation, literature research, qualitative and quantitative analysis and so on, expounds the characteristics of the non-commercial highway. The VFM evaluation model based on PSC method is constructed, and the key parameters such as discount rate, risk loss coefficient and reasonable profit rate of social investors are analyzed. Combined with practical cases, this paper calculates the PSC value, the PPP structure and the index factors of the two core indexes in the model, and explains the applicability of the evaluation model by using sensitivity analysis technology. To solve some difficult or puzzling problems in application, the main conclusions are as follows: 1. In order to ensure the rationality of data sources, the PSC method should be applied to the VFM quantitative evaluation of non-operating PPP projects in China, and a targeted evaluation model and parameter indexes should be constructed according to the specific conditions of our country. 2. The discount rate has a great influence on the evaluation conclusion of VFM, and improper value may lead to false or false evaluation conclusion. It is necessary to revise the discount rate in the existing evaluation model of our country. From the point of view of government capital cost, we can not simply refer to the interest rate of local government bonds in the same period. We can use the CAPM model to introduce risk transfer coefficient to modify the discount rate and establish a discount rate system suitable for our country's national conditions. 3. The sensitivity analysis of VFM can help the decision makers of PPP project to identify the sensitive factors that affect the conclusion of VFM. Through the VFM critical point analysis, it is helpful for the decision makers to define the limit value and the tolerable range of changes that affect the VFM conclusion without making decision mistakes. 4. With the help of sensitivity analysis, VFM can be used as a management tool to monitor and modify PPP projects and to implement the concept of value for money from the point of view of the whole life cycle of the project.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283
本文编号：2346052
[Abstract]:Referring to the theory and practice of VFM quantitative evaluation of PPP projects at home and abroad, combining with the characteristics and localization environment of non-commercial highway construction projects in China, this paper studies the operable measures of VFM quantitative evaluation for non-profit-making PPP projects. On this basis, the future direction of development and suggestions for improvement are put forward, thus providing theoretical and practical reference for quantitative evaluation of VFM in China. This paper mainly adopts the case analysis method, taking the PPP project of the Northern Loop Road in J County as an example, combining the research methods of expert consultation, literature research, qualitative and quantitative analysis and so on, expounds the characteristics of the non-commercial highway. The VFM evaluation model based on PSC method is constructed, and the key parameters such as discount rate, risk loss coefficient and reasonable profit rate of social investors are analyzed. Combined with practical cases, this paper calculates the PSC value, the PPP structure and the index factors of the two core indexes in the model, and explains the applicability of the evaluation model by using sensitivity analysis technology. To solve some difficult or puzzling problems in application, the main conclusions are as follows: 1. In order to ensure the rationality of data sources, the PSC method should be applied to the VFM quantitative evaluation of non-operating PPP projects in China, and a targeted evaluation model and parameter indexes should be constructed according to the specific conditions of our country. 2. The discount rate has a great influence on the evaluation conclusion of VFM, and improper value may lead to false or false evaluation conclusion. It is necessary to revise the discount rate in the existing evaluation model of our country. From the point of view of government capital cost, we can not simply refer to the interest rate of local government bonds in the same period. We can use the CAPM model to introduce risk transfer coefficient to modify the discount rate and establish a discount rate system suitable for our country's national conditions. 3. The sensitivity analysis of VFM can help the decision makers of PPP project to identify the sensitive factors that affect the conclusion of VFM. Through the VFM critical point analysis, it is helpful for the decision makers to define the limit value and the tolerable range of changes that affect the VFM conclusion without making decision mistakes. 4. With the help of sensitivity analysis, VFM can be used as a management tool to monitor and modify PPP projects and to implement the concept of value for money from the point of view of the whole life cycle of the project.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283
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