地理距离、技术进步与中国城市经济增长的空间溢出效应——基于拓展Solow模型第三方效应的实证检验
发布时间：2018-11-26 07:05
【摘要】：根据新经济地理学理论,地理距离是影响区域经济增长收敛的重要因素,本文引入地理距离和技术进步等变量拓展了传统索洛模型,分析了区域经济增长的第三方效应,并采用空间滞后模型(SAR)、空间误差模型(SEM)和空间杜宾模型(SDM),实证分析了1997—2013年间中国280个主要城市的经济增长收敛特征及其空间溢出效应。结果表明:经济环境因素对区域经济增长的影响较为显著,其中储蓄率、外商直接投资、人口增长率和技术进步均与经济增长存在显著的正相关关系;同时地区经济增长速度与该区初期产出负相关,即初期产出较低的地区经济增长速度较快,说明经济落后的地区比经济发达地区经济增长速度相对更快,可见在全国范围内各大城市经济增长满足条件收敛规律。研究还表明,地理距离是影响区域经济增长收敛的重要因素,区域内宏观变量对周边城市经济增长存在较强的溢出效应,即区域经济增长存在较强的第三方效应。分地区研究还表明,东部及中部地区的空间溢出效应明显高于西部地区,但后者较前两者经济增长的收敛速度相对更快。在此基础上,本文针对促进城市经济互动增长提出对策建议。
[Abstract]:According to the new economic geography theory, geographical distance is an important factor influencing the convergence of regional economic growth. In this paper, the traditional Solow model is extended by introducing geographical distance and technological progress, and the third party effect of regional economic growth is analyzed. Using spatial lag model (SAR),) and spatial error model (SEM) and spatial Dobbin model (SDM), the paper empirically analyzes the convergence characteristics and spatial spillover effects of economic growth in 280 major cities in China from 1997 to 2013. The results show that the influence of economic environment on regional economic growth is significant. Among them, savings rate, foreign direct investment, population growth rate and technological progress have significant positive correlation with economic growth. At the same time, the regional economic growth rate is negatively correlated with the initial output, that is, the economic growth rate of the region with lower initial output is faster, which indicates that the economic growth rate of the economically backward areas is relatively faster than that of the economically developed regions. Can be seen in the country-wide major cities to meet the economic growth conditions convergence law. The study also shows that geographical distance is an important factor affecting the convergence of regional economic growth, and that there is a strong spillover effect of regional macro variables on the economic growth of surrounding cities, that is, regional economic growth has a strong third-party effect. Regional studies also show that the spatial spillover effect in the eastern and central regions is significantly higher than that in the western region, but the convergence rate of the latter is faster than that of the former two regions. On this basis, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the interactive growth of urban economy.
【作者单位】： 华南师范大学经济与管理学院、(香江)国际金融研究中心;华南理工大学计算机科学与工程学院;华南师范大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“不同基础条件下资本账户开放的金融风险及管理研究”(71303081) 全国统计科研计划项目“非线性动态面板平滑转换回归模型:理论建模与金融应用”(2013LY084) 中国博士后基金面上项目“资本账户开放的金融风险及管理研究”(2013M540669) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“汇率调整之谜和我国经常账户失衡研究:微观基础与动态效应”(12YJC790006) 广东省软科学研究计划项目“广东省区域资本配置效率驱动高科技产业转型升级的动力和路径研究”(2016A070705046)、广东省软科学研究计划项目“广东省高科技制造业产融结合效率及转型升级方向研究”(2014A070704011) 华南师范大学哲学社会科学决策研究项目“国家一路一带战略中港澳的地位与作用研究”(JCYJ1507))资助
【分类号】：F224;F299.2
[Abstract]:According to the new economic geography theory, geographical distance is an important factor influencing the convergence of regional economic growth. In this paper, the traditional Solow model is extended by introducing geographical distance and technological progress, and the third party effect of regional economic growth is analyzed. Using spatial lag model (SAR),) and spatial error model (SEM) and spatial Dobbin model (SDM), the paper empirically analyzes the convergence characteristics and spatial spillover effects of economic growth in 280 major cities in China from 1997 to 2013. The results show that the influence of economic environment on regional economic growth is significant. Among them, savings rate, foreign direct investment, population growth rate and technological progress have significant positive correlation with economic growth. At the same time, the regional economic growth rate is negatively correlated with the initial output, that is, the economic growth rate of the region with lower initial output is faster, which indicates that the economic growth rate of the economically backward areas is relatively faster than that of the economically developed regions. Can be seen in the country-wide major cities to meet the economic growth conditions convergence law. The study also shows that geographical distance is an important factor affecting the convergence of regional economic growth, and that there is a strong spillover effect of regional macro variables on the economic growth of surrounding cities, that is, regional economic growth has a strong third-party effect. Regional studies also show that the spatial spillover effect in the eastern and central regions is significantly higher than that in the western region, but the convergence rate of the latter is faster than that of the former two regions. On this basis, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the interactive growth of urban economy.
【作者单位】： 华南师范大学经济与管理学院、(香江)国际金融研究中心;华南理工大学计算机科学与工程学院;华南师范大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“不同基础条件下资本账户开放的金融风险及管理研究”(71303081) 全国统计科研计划项目“非线性动态面板平滑转换回归模型:理论建模与金融应用”(2013LY084) 中国博士后基金面上项目“资本账户开放的金融风险及管理研究”(2013M540669) 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“汇率调整之谜和我国经常账户失衡研究:微观基础与动态效应”(12YJC790006) 广东省软科学研究计划项目“广东省区域资本配置效率驱动高科技产业转型升级的动力和路径研究”(2016A070705046)、广东省软科学研究计划项目“广东省高科技制造业产融结合效率及转型升级方向研究”(2014A070704011) 华南师范大学哲学社会科学决策研究项目“国家一路一带战略中港澳的地位与作用研究”(JCYJ1507))资助
【分类号】：F224;F299.2
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