供求错配、产能过剩与产品市场供给侧结构性改革——一个包含产能过剩与劳动力成本的“新共识”框架

发布时间：2019-03-27 20:50

【摘要】：当前,产能过剩与劳动力成本上升是我国经济发展过程中的重要现实问题。通过加入产品市场与劳动力市场摩擦,对传统的"新共识"分析框架进行拓展,进而构建一个包含产能过剩与劳动力成本上升等现实元素的"新共识"分析框架。基于这一分析框架,考察供给侧冲击及两种不同的产品市场供给侧结构性改革方式的宏观动态效应。研究表明:在产品市场匹配效率未得到明显提升的条件下,片面地提高生产率将加剧产能过剩的问题;无论是哪一种改革方式,其所带来的效果均具有显著的"以短期疼痛换取长期收益"的特征。但相对而言,渐进性供给侧改革所带来的短期成本相对较小且长期收益相对较大;因此,在推行供给侧改革的过程中,政府应该依据现实情况,渐进推行产品市场供给侧结构性改革。
[Abstract]:At present, overcapacity and labor cost increase are important realistic problems in the economic development of our country. By joining the friction between product market and labor market, this paper expands the traditional "new consensus" analysis framework, and then constructs a "new consensus" analysis framework which includes realistic elements such as overcapacity and rising labor cost. Based on this analysis framework, the macro-dynamic effects of supply-side shock and two different supply-side structural reforms in product markets are investigated. The research shows that under the condition that the matching efficiency of product market is not improved, one-sided improvement of productivity will aggravate the problem of overcapacity. Either way, the effect is marked by "short-term pain for long-term benefits". However, the short-term cost brought by progressive supply-side reform is relatively small and the long-term benefits are relatively large. Therefore, in the process of implementing the supply-side reform, the government should gradually carry out the supply-side structural reform of the product market according to the reality.
【作者单位】：中共广东省委党校经济学教研部;中国社会科学院经济研究所;广东财经大学国民经济研究中心;
【基金】：广东省哲学社会科学“十二五”规划学科共建项目“劳动力市场结构性改革与中国经济波动研究—动态新凯恩斯主义的视角”(GD14XYJ02)
【分类号】：F121;F249.2

【参考文献】