呼和浩特市区城市用地扩展多情景模拟研究

发布时间：2019-05-29 21:56

【摘要】：呼和浩特市城市化进程的加快一方面促进了区域经济发展,另一方面也给区域生态环境带来了极大破坏,使区域资源、环境等各方面矛盾突出。因此,将呼和浩特市区城市用地扩展引起的生态环境问题进行深入、系统地研究,对于保护区域生态安全,实现城市可持续发展具有重要意义。基于上述背景,本文以“城市用地扩展情景模拟——生态风险效应——相应调控策略”为研究主线,以呼和浩特市区为例,借鉴景观生态学、城市规划学等相关理论,利用遥感、地理信息系统技术和CLUE-S模型模拟了2025年呼和浩特市区不同情景下城市用地的变化情况,并在此基础上对研究区进行风险评价。旨在探究不同情景下城市用地扩展对生态风险的影响,为城市合理发展提供调控策略。研究结果如下:(1)以CLUE-S模型为基础,选取自然因素、社会经济因素和距离因素等,模拟呼和浩特市区2010年的土地利用变化,并利用Kappa指数结合2010年的实际解译数据进行验证。在此基础上分别模拟研究区2025年自然增长、粮食保护、生态保护、土地规划四种情景下土地利用变化,结果显示不同情景下土地利用格局存在显著差异。(2)研究区1990-2014年城市用地规模不断扩大,24年间城市用地面积扩大了32935.682hm,面积增长了将近3倍。四个研究时段内城市用地扩展速度及强度均有所不同,但总体上呈上升趋势。其中,2001-2010年城市用地扩展速度、扩展强度均最大。(3)2025年各情景下的城市用地均呈增加趋势。其中自然增长情景下,城市用地增幅最大,城市用地扩展方向以东部及南部为主。生态保护情景下,城市用地增幅最小。粮食保护情景下,城市用地主要向东及南部呈无规则扩展,城市形状复杂。土地规划情景下,城市用地分布较集中。(4)2025年各情景下研究区整体生态风险指数水平各不相同,其中,土地规划情景下生态风险指数最低,仅为0.1081;粮食保护情景下研究区整体生态风险指数最高,为0.2252。(5)2025年各情景下生态风险空间分布格局有较大差异。自然增长情景下,生态风险以低及较低生态风险等级为主,主要分布在研究区中西部、大黑河南部及东北部山区。粮食保护情景下,高生态风险等级面积比例为66.39%,分布贯穿研究区东北部及南部地区。生态保护情景下,较低等级生态风险面积占研究区总面积的66.83%,主要分布在除大黑河沿岸外的北部山区,东部及南部区域。土地规划情景下,以低及较低等级生态风险为主,占研究区面积79.38%;高生态风险主要分布在大黑河沿岸。(6)从不同情景城市用地扩展模拟及所致生态风险来看,土地规划情景是最优的城市发展方案。未来城市发展中,要适当推行退耕还林政策以保证区域生态质量,规划基本农田区以保障粮食供应,合理规划城市扩展,在促进城市扩展的同时保障生态质量。
[Abstract]:On the one hand, the acceleration of urbanization in Hohhot has promoted the development of regional economy, on the other hand, it has also brought great damage to the regional ecological environment, which makes the contradiction between regional resources and environment prominent. Therefore, it is of great significance to deeply and systematically study the ecological environment problems caused by the urban land use expansion in Hohhot for the protection of regional ecological security and the realization of urban sustainable development. Based on the above background, this paper takes "urban land use expansion scenario simulation-ecological risk effect-corresponding regulation and control strategy" as the main line of research, takes Hohhot urban area as an example, draws lessons from landscape ecology, urban planning and other related theories. Remote sensing, GIS technology and CLUE-S model are used to simulate the change of urban land use under different scenarios in Hohhot city in 2025. on this basis, the risk assessment of the study area is carried out. The purpose of this paper is to explore the influence of urban land use expansion on ecological risk under different scenarios, and to provide regulation and control strategies for the rational development of the city. The results are as follows: (1) based on CLUE-S model, natural factors, social and economic factors and distance factors are selected to simulate the land use change in Hohhot city in 2010. The Kappa index combined with the actual interpretation data in 2010 is used to verify. On this basis, the land use changes under the four scenarios of natural growth, grain protection, ecological protection and land planning in the study area in 2025 were simulated respectively. The results showed that there were significant differences in land use pattern under different scenarios. (2) the scale of urban land use in the study area expanded continuously from 1990 to 2014, and the urban land use area increased by 32935.682hm in the past 24 years, and the area increased nearly tripled. The expansion speed and intensity of urban land use are different in the four research periods, but on the whole, it shows an upward trend. From 2001 to 2010, the expansion speed and intensity of urban land use are the highest. (3) the urban land use in 2025 shows an increasing trend. Under the natural growth scenario, the increase of urban land is the largest, and the direction of urban land expansion is mainly in the east and south. Under the scenario of ecological protection, the increase of urban land use is the smallest. Under the scenario of food protection, the urban land mainly expands irregularly to the east and south, and the shape of the city is complex. Under the scenario of land planning, the distribution of urban land is more concentrated. (4) the overall ecological risk index level of the study area is different under each scenario in 2025, among which the ecological risk index is the lowest under the land planning scenario, which is only 0.1081; Under the scenario of grain protection, the overall ecological risk index of the study area is the highest, which is 0.225.2. (5) the spatial distribution pattern of ecological risk under each scenario in 2025 is quite different. Under the natural growth scenario, the ecological risk is mainly low and low ecological risk grade, mainly distributed in the central and western parts of the study area, the southern and northeast mountains of Dahei River. Under the scenario of grain protection, the proportion of high ecological risk grade area is 66.39%, which runs through the northeast and south of the study area. Under the scenario of ecological protection, the lower grade ecological risk area accounts for 66.83% of the total area of the study area, which is mainly distributed in the northern mountainous areas except the Dahei River, the eastern and southern regions. Under the scenario of land planning, the ecological risk of low and lower grade is the main, accounting for 79.38% of the area of the study area. The high ecological risk is mainly distributed along the coast of Dahehe River. (6) from the simulation of urban land use expansion and the ecological risk caused by different scenarios, land planning scenario is the best urban development scheme. In the future urban development, we should properly carry out the policy of returning farmland to forest in order to ensure the regional ecological quality, plan the basic farmland area to ensure the grain supply, plan the urban expansion reasonably, and guarantee the ecological quality while promoting the urban expansion.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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