基于GWR模型的杭州市写字楼租金特征价格空间分异研究
发布时间：2019-06-15 17:05
【摘要】：随着城镇化率的不断提高,城市经济得以快速增长,社会化分工与协作进一步得到推动和完善,催生出大量新的办公空间需求。然而,办公空间的载体——写字楼的供给却远远超出当前的需求,杭州市同其他多数二线城市一样,写字楼新增供应与城市规模、经济结构基本面创造的需求不相匹配,市场存量不断增多,去化缓慢。探索城市写字楼价格特征,掌握影响写字楼租金变量,分析城市写字楼空间分异特点等研究将有利于市场各方科学快速的把握需求,推进写字楼长效的开发、经营与管理。本文首先回顾了特征价格研究的相关文献,探讨了特征价格模型和地理加权模型的基本理论和计算方法,并对目前写字楼相关研究做了总结。影响写字楼租金的因素非常多,本文通过综合国内和国外研究成果,实践经验成果,以及国内办公市场特点和相关专业人士的经验积累,总结出一套适用于我国的写字楼租金特征价格变量体系,最终根据杭州市数据特点将各个特征变量进一步分为内部特征和外部特征两类。然后,就收集到的2016年1月杭州市写字楼横截面数据进行初步的分布与构成分析,利用OLS法分析写字楼租金特征价格,讨论了四种函数的回归效果,逐步研究了不同函数形式下的拟合结果、并对SPSS环境下线性对数函数建模和自动线性建模的优劣进行了比较,并最终确立了 OLS法下的特征价格回归模型,进入回归的变量有内部特征3个(物业服务、电梯数量、建筑平面)和外部特征3个(距武林广场距离、距市民中心距离、交通条件)。在拟合效果最好的特征价格模型基础上,本文建立了对异质空间回归为特征的GWR模型,研究结果显示,杭州市写字楼租金的研究GWR模型相较于传统的特征价格模型具有更好的回归效果。具体从内部特征来看,建筑标准层面积越大对于传统老城区写字楼租金价格具有显著的正面促进作用,而对城市新区(滨江区、钱江新城)则完全相反;物业服务对全杭州市写字楼租金价格的影响都十分显著,但是对传统商圈核心区的价格提升更为明显,对城市新区价格提升能力偏弱;电梯数量同样对全杭州市写字楼租金价格有较为显著的影响,对租金价格的促进集中体现在以武林广场周边的传统商圈核心区。从外部特征来看,距武林广场距离变量对各个区域均比较显著,符合杭州市以武林广场为中心向外扩散租金价格递减的一般判断;而距市民中心距离变量则对租金价格影响有限,特别是传统商圈核心区以及与钱江新城同样作为新区的滨江区;交通条件(即公交条数)对滨江区写字楼租金价格影响非常显著,其他五区交通条件的影响则相对均匀。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of urbanization rate, the urban economy has been growing rapidly, and the socialized division of labor and cooperation has been further promoted and improved, resulting in a large number of new office space needs. However, the supply of office space, the carrier of office space, far exceeds the current demand. Hangzhou, like most other second-tier cities, does not match the demand created by the size of the city and the fundamentals of economic structure, the market stock continues to increase, and the transformation is slow. Exploring the price characteristics of urban office buildings, mastering the variables that affect the rent of office buildings, and analyzing the characteristics of spatial differentiation of urban office buildings will be helpful for all parties in the market to grasp the demand scientifically and quickly, and to promote the long-term development, management and management of office buildings. This paper first reviews the relevant literature of feature price research, discusses the basic theory and calculation method of feature price model and geographical weighting model, and summarizes the current office building related research. There are many factors affecting office rent. Based on the domestic and foreign research results, practical experience, as well as the characteristics of domestic office market and the accumulation of experience of relevant professionals, this paper summarizes a set of office rent characteristic price variable system suitable for our country, and finally divides each characteristic variable into internal characteristics and external characteristics according to the characteristics of Hangzhou data. Then, the cross section data of Hangzhou office building collected in January 2016 are analyzed, the characteristic price of office rent is analyzed by OLS method, the regression effect of four functions is discussed, the fitting results under different function forms are studied step by step, the advantages and disadvantages of linear logarithmic function modeling and automatic linear modeling in SPSS environment are compared, and the characteristic price regression model under OLS method is finally established. The variables entering the regression include 3 internal characteristics (property service, elevator number, building plane) and 3 external features (distance from Wulin Square, distance from citizen center, traffic conditions). On the basis of the characteristic price model with the best fitting effect, this paper establishes a GWR model characterized by heterogeneous spatial regression. The results show that the GWR model of office rent in Hangzhou has a better regression effect than the traditional characteristic price model. From the internal characteristics, the larger the area of the standard floor of the building has a significant positive role in promoting the rental price of office buildings in the traditional old urban area, but the opposite is true to the new urban area (Binjiang District, Qianjiang New City). The impact of property services on the rental price of office buildings in Hangzhou is very significant, but the price increase in the core area of the traditional business circle is more obvious, and the ability to raise the price in the new urban area is weak. The number of elevators also has a significant impact on the rent price of office buildings in Hangzhou, and the promotion of rent price is mainly reflected in the core area of the traditional business circle around Wulin Square. From the external characteristics, the distance variable from Wulin Square is significant to each region, which accords with the general judgment that the rent price decreases with Wulin Square as the center, while the distance variable from the center of the citizen has limited influence on the rent price, especially the core area of the traditional business circle and the Binjiang District, which is also regarded as the new area of the new area. The influence of traffic conditions (that is, the number of bus strips) on the rent price of office buildings in Binjiang District is very significant, while the influence of traffic conditions in the other five districts is relatively uniform.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of urbanization rate, the urban economy has been growing rapidly, and the socialized division of labor and cooperation has been further promoted and improved, resulting in a large number of new office space needs. However, the supply of office space, the carrier of office space, far exceeds the current demand. Hangzhou, like most other second-tier cities, does not match the demand created by the size of the city and the fundamentals of economic structure, the market stock continues to increase, and the transformation is slow. Exploring the price characteristics of urban office buildings, mastering the variables that affect the rent of office buildings, and analyzing the characteristics of spatial differentiation of urban office buildings will be helpful for all parties in the market to grasp the demand scientifically and quickly, and to promote the long-term development, management and management of office buildings. This paper first reviews the relevant literature of feature price research, discusses the basic theory and calculation method of feature price model and geographical weighting model, and summarizes the current office building related research. There are many factors affecting office rent. Based on the domestic and foreign research results, practical experience, as well as the characteristics of domestic office market and the accumulation of experience of relevant professionals, this paper summarizes a set of office rent characteristic price variable system suitable for our country, and finally divides each characteristic variable into internal characteristics and external characteristics according to the characteristics of Hangzhou data. Then, the cross section data of Hangzhou office building collected in January 2016 are analyzed, the characteristic price of office rent is analyzed by OLS method, the regression effect of four functions is discussed, the fitting results under different function forms are studied step by step, the advantages and disadvantages of linear logarithmic function modeling and automatic linear modeling in SPSS environment are compared, and the characteristic price regression model under OLS method is finally established. The variables entering the regression include 3 internal characteristics (property service, elevator number, building plane) and 3 external features (distance from Wulin Square, distance from citizen center, traffic conditions). On the basis of the characteristic price model with the best fitting effect, this paper establishes a GWR model characterized by heterogeneous spatial regression. The results show that the GWR model of office rent in Hangzhou has a better regression effect than the traditional characteristic price model. From the internal characteristics, the larger the area of the standard floor of the building has a significant positive role in promoting the rental price of office buildings in the traditional old urban area, but the opposite is true to the new urban area (Binjiang District, Qianjiang New City). The impact of property services on the rental price of office buildings in Hangzhou is very significant, but the price increase in the core area of the traditional business circle is more obvious, and the ability to raise the price in the new urban area is weak. The number of elevators also has a significant impact on the rent price of office buildings in Hangzhou, and the promotion of rent price is mainly reflected in the core area of the traditional business circle around Wulin Square. From the external characteristics, the distance variable from Wulin Square is significant to each region, which accords with the general judgment that the rent price decreases with Wulin Square as the center, while the distance variable from the center of the citizen has limited influence on the rent price, especially the core area of the traditional business circle and the Binjiang District, which is also regarded as the new area of the new area. The influence of traffic conditions (that is, the number of bus strips) on the rent price of office buildings in Binjiang District is very significant, while the influence of traffic conditions in the other five districts is relatively uniform.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23
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