中国保险业系统性风险再保险业务传染效应研究

发布时间：2017-12-26 20:20

本文关键词：中国保险业系统性风险再保险业务传染效应研究　出处：《当代经济科学》2015年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文基于我国保险数据采用矩阵法研究了不同市场结构下再保险承保业务风险的传染效应,分析了再保险风险传染导致系统性风险的可能性。研究结果表明,我国保险业通过再保险承保业务传染引发系统性风险的概率非常小。通过研究单个保险公司破产和多个保险公司同时破产所产生的传染性特征,包括业务赔付率、破产公司数目和破产轮数等指标发现,我国保险业发生系统性风险的门槛相当高,并且传染性非常弱;境内外的再保险公司,尤其是中国财产再保险股份有限公司和中国人寿再保险股份有限公司是系统性风险的潜在来源,属于系统重要性保险公司;相对于"完全分散型"市场,"相对集中型"市场下系统性风险业务传染的门槛显著提高,同时传染性也显著增强。各保险公司需要权衡应用再保险产生的内部风险分散效应与外部风险传染效应之间的关系,在境内外再保险市场适当、均衡地进行再保险。监管部门则要重视风险诱导因素发生前的预防和风险传染过程的干预,加强对再保险公司的"特殊"监管和与境外监管机构的协调合作。
[Abstract]:Based on the insurance data in China, the contagion effect of reinsurance underwriting business risk under different market structure is studied by matrix method, and the possibility of systemic risk caused by reinsurance risk infection is analyzed. The results show that the probability of systemic risk caused by the contagion of reinsurance underwriting business in China is very small. By studying the infectious characteristics of individual insurance company bankruptcy and a number of insurance companies go bankrupt at the same time the payment rate, including business bankruptcies and bankruptcy rounds and other indicators, China's insurance industry systemic risk threshold is very high, and very weak infectious; domestic and foreign reinsurance companies, especially Chinese property reinsurance Limited by Share Ltd and China Life Reinsurance Co is a potential source of systemic risk, which belongs to the importance of system of insurance company; compared with the "completely decentralized market", "the threshold of systemic risk contagion business relatively concentrated market is significantly increased, at the same time also significantly enhanced infectivity. The insurance companies need to weigh the relationship between the internal risk dispersion effect and the external risk contagion effect generated by reinsurance, and reinsurance appropriately and evenly in the domestic and foreign re insurance market. The regulatory authorities should attach importance to the prevention and risk intervention process before risk inducement factors, strengthen the special supervision of reinsurance companies and coordinate with overseas regulatory agencies.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学保险学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71403305) 教育部人文社科研究项目(14YJC790118) 中财121人才工程青年博士发展基金(QBJ1401) 中央财经大学青年科研创新团队支持计划中国保险学会项目(ll CKT2014-N-1-08)
【分类号】：F842
【正文快照】： 一、引言随着保险职能的深化和风险向复杂化、多样化态势的演变,保险业自身的风险问题,尤其是系统性风险备受关注。保险业要严防系统性、区域性风险[1],因为我国保险市场长期高速度、粗放式发展,其背后隐藏的风险发展到一定程度可能引发系统性风险,而且当前保险市场环境的变化

【参考文献】