基于模型选择方法的农业巨灾风险承受能力评估

发布时间：2018-01-08 04:00

本文关键词：基于模型选择方法的农业巨灾风险承受能力评估　出处：《财经科学》2014年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：面对农业巨灾损失风险,我国保险市场的巨灾风险承受能力多大?通过模型选择技术构建农业巨灾保险风险承受能力度量模型,对我国农业巨灾风险承受能力进行仿真评估。仿真结果表明:在农业巨灾保险全覆盖的假设下,根据保物化成本的原则,面对我国平均每年遭受400亿元左右农业成本损失的情况,目前财险市场只能提供200亿元左右的补偿,赔付率仅为50%。当农业成本损失接近3000亿元时,财险行业承受能力也达到极限694亿元,此时赔付率只有23%。相比美国75%的农业巨灾损失赔付率,我国农业巨灾损失赔付率明显过低。这就需要按照"中央统筹协调、地方破题开局、行业急用先建"的"三条线,齐步走"战略,加速推进巨灾保险再保险、巨灾风险基金和巨灾风险债券三位一体的农业巨灾风险分散机制。
[Abstract]:Facing the loss of agricultural catastrophe risk, much of China's insurance market catastrophe risk tolerance? Through model selection technique to build the capacity of agricultural catastrophe insurance risk measurement model, the simulation evaluation of the risk tolerance of agricultural catastrophe in China. The simulation results show that under the assumption that the agricultural catastrophe insurance coverage under the insurance according to the material cost the principle, in the face of China's annual average of about 40 billion yuan from agricultural cost loss, the insurance market can only provide 20 billion yuan compensation, payment rate is only 50%. when the cost of agricultural loss of nearly 300 billion yuan, the insurance industry capacity has reached the limit of 69 billion 400 million yuan, the loss rate is only 23%. of agricultural catastrophe loss of 75% U.S. the rate compared to China's agricultural catastrophe loss rate was too low. This requires in accordance with the central co-ordination, local essay start, industry urgently to be built "" The three line, marching "strategy, to accelerate the catastrophe insurance reinsurance, catastrophe risk and catastrophe risk bond fund three-in-one agricultural catastrophe risk diversification mechanism.

【作者单位】：云南财经大学金融学院;
【基金】：2012年国家自然科学基金项目《现代农业巨灾风险保障体系及实施难点研究:基于粮食安全视角》,批准号:71263056
【分类号】：F842.6;F320
【正文快照】： 一、引言随着全球极端气候日益频繁,农业面临巨灾风险概率增大。党的十八届三中全会提出建立巨灾保险制度。国家相关部门和一些地方政府正积极推动农业保险制度变迁,把容易导致巨灾的干旱、水涝和虫害等灾害纳入政策性种植业保险基本责任,探索建立农业巨灾保险制度,见表1。表1

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