养老保险对城镇居民消费影响的研究

发布时间：2018-01-30 14:55

本文关键词： 养老保险城镇居民消费生命周期假说养老保险覆盖率　出处：《青岛大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国的居民消费率水平较低,与发达国家存在一定差距。刺激消费、扩大内需是我国今后很长一段时间里经济发展的主要途径。完善的社会保障制度能够减轻居民对未来生活的担忧,增加他们的消费信心。因此,研究养老保险支出与居民消费之间的关系具有重要得意义。在对前人相关研究总结归纳的基础上,本文首先分析了养老保险影响居民消费的主要理论,介绍了凯恩斯的绝对收入假说、莫迪利安尼的生命周期假说和预防性储蓄理论,这为模型建立与实证分析奠定了理论基础。其次,对养老保险和城镇居民消费之间的关系进行定性分析。简单介绍了养老保险在我国的发展状况和城镇居民消费的变动趋势。本文认为,养老保险主要通过影响居民收入、居民收入的再分配和居民心理预期等方面影响居民消费。再次,本文结合山东省的实际情况,基于生命周期假说建立计量模型,对养老保险与城镇居民消费的关系进行定量分析。使用山东省2005至2015年17个地市的面板数据进行实证分析。以山东省城镇人均消费支出作为被解释变量,城镇人均基本养老保险支出、城镇居民人均可支配收入、养老保险覆盖率作为解释变量,研究城镇基本养老保险支出与城镇居民消费支出的相关关系,为刺激居民消费和完善养老保险制度提供经验数据。实证结果显示,养老保险支出显著影响居民消费支出,并且与之呈正相关关系。最后,根据前文的研究结果,本文提出了完善社会养老保险制度、刺激城镇居民消费的政策建议:落实责任主体,加快养老保险制度转轨进程;提高养老保险覆盖率,发挥养老保险制度的收入再分配职能;加强基金运作,促进养老保险制度的深层次发展;注重结合各地实际,提高养老保险统筹层次。
[Abstract]:Our country's resident consumption rate is low, and there is a certain gap with developed countries to stimulate consumption. Expanding domestic demand is the main way of economic development in China for a long time in the future. A perfect social security system can alleviate residents' worries about future life and increase their consumption confidence. It is of great significance to study the relationship between endowment insurance expenditure and residents' consumption. Based on the summary of previous studies, this paper first analyzes the main theory of pension insurance affecting residents' consumption. This paper introduces Keynes' absolute income hypothesis, Modigliani's life cycle hypothesis and precautionary saving theory, which lays a theoretical foundation for model building and empirical analysis. Secondly. The relationship between endowment insurance and urban residents' consumption is qualitatively analyzed. The development of endowment insurance in China and the changing trend of urban residents' consumption are briefly introduced. Pension insurance mainly affects residents' consumption through influencing residents' income, redistribution of residents' income and residents' psychological expectation. Thirdly, this paper combines the actual situation of Shandong Province. The econometric model is established based on the life cycle hypothesis. This paper makes a quantitative analysis of the relationship between endowment insurance and urban residents' consumption. Using the panel data from 17 prefectures in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2015, the empirical analysis is carried out. The average urban consumption expenditure in Shandong Province is taken as the solution. Release variables. The basic old-age insurance expenditure per capita, the per capita disposable income of urban residents, the coverage rate of old-age insurance as an explanatory variable, the relationship between urban basic old-age insurance expenditure and urban residents' consumption expenditure is studied. In order to stimulate the consumption of residents and improve the pension insurance system to provide empirical data. Empirical results show that the expenditure of pension insurance significantly affects the consumer expenditure of residents and has a positive correlation. Finally. Based on the above research results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to perfect the social old-age insurance system and stimulate the consumption of urban residents: implementing the responsible subject and speeding up the transition process of the old-age insurance system; To improve the coverage of old-age insurance and give play to the income redistribution function of the old-age insurance system; Strengthening the fund operation and promoting the deep development of the old-age insurance system; Pay attention to combine with local reality, raise endowment insurance overall planning level.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.67;F126.1

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