延迟退休的养老保险缴费率地区差异收敛效应研究——基于供给侧改革降费率视角

发布时间：2018-02-04 22:14

本文关键词： 供给侧改革降费适度标准延迟退休缴费地区差异适度收敛　出处：《人口与发展》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：以养老保险缴费率与降费空间"倒挂"的降费困境为现实问题导向,选取典型地区进行人口结构预测,实证检验延迟退休对养老保险缴费地区差异收敛影响机理、效应水平。研究发现:(1)延迟退休能够缓解地区间养老保险人口结构离散发展趋势,降低老年抚养比地区差距;(2)通过仿真模拟测算,发现实施延迟退休能够缩小城镇基础养老保险缴费率地区差距,典型地区辽宁省和广东省城镇基础养老保险短期动态缴费需求差距缩减7.72%,长期收支均衡缴费需求缩减2.69%;(3)构建代际交叠养老保险缴费适度水平数理模型,确定基础养老保险降费率适度标准为15%;(4)延迟退休、降低费率与缩减养老保险人口结构偏离系数"三维"联动有利于实现降费目标。进一步提出了推动养老保险全国统筹、完善养老保险缴费激励机制等对策建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the dilemma of "hanging upside down" between the contribution rate of endowment insurance and the space of fee reduction, this paper selects the typical area to forecast the population structure. Empirical study on the effect of delayed retirement on the convergence of regional differences in pension insurance contributions. The study found that delayed retirement can alleviate the trend of discrete population structure of pension insurance in different regions. Reducing the regional gap of dependency ratio of old age; 2) through simulation and calculation, it is found that the implementation of delayed retirement can narrow the regional gap in the contribution rates of urban basic old-age insurance. In the typical areas of Liaoning Province and Guangdong Province, the gap between the demand for short-term and dynamic payment of basic old-age insurance is reduced by 7.72, and the demand for long-term payment is reduced by 2.69; (3) to construct the mathematical model of the appropriate level of superimposed endowment insurance contribution, and to determine the appropriate standard of reducing the rate of basic old-age insurance to 15. 4) delayed retirement, the linkage between reducing the rate and reducing the deviation coefficient of the population structure of the old-age insurance is beneficial to the realization of the goal of reducing the cost. Further, it is proposed to promote the overall plan of the endowment insurance in the whole country. Improve the endowment insurance contribution incentive mechanism and other countermeasures.
【作者单位】：辽宁大学人口研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“基础养老保险缴费率一元化及适度水平研究”(71373110) 辽宁省社科基金规划项目“渐进式延迟退休政策对辽宁省劳动力市场影响机制研究”(L16CRK001) 辽宁经济社会发展立项课题“经济新常态下城镇职工养老保险缴费适度水平研究”(2017lslktqn-051) 辽宁省教育厅项目“人口结构变化对辽宁省企业养老保险基金平衡的影响效应研究”(WQN201612)阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F842.67
【正文快照】： 1问题提出降低社会保险费率是党的十八届三中全会提出的重要任务,也是供给侧改革“降成本”的核心途径。目前,我国城镇社会保险费率总计约43%,养老保险费率为28%,养老保险缴费占社会保险总费率的三分之二,降低养老保险缴费率是供给侧改革的重中之重。养老保险降费率既是重点,

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