我国商业健康保险需求影响因素的实证分析

发布时间：2018-02-21 02:51

本文关键词： 商业健康保险需求影响因素　出处：《东北财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国商业健康保险起源于20世纪80年代初。1996年底,政府推出城镇职工基本医疗保险制度,标志着中国商业健康保险业务开始全面展开。但其发展却不是很顺利,目前看来健康险成为一个矛盾体:一方面市场空间大得惊人,社会公众需求迫切;另一方面市场供给乏力。这种状态远远不能满足人们对健康保险的需求,而且与保险为社会服务的最高理想相去甚远。如何解决这个问题,促进健康险顺利发展则是本文研究的重点。本文主要就商业健康保险的需求现状进行分析以及量化。首先了解目前市场上商业健康保险发展存在的问题,在此基础上,通过阅读大量的文献,选择2005年到2014年我国30个省、市、自治区(不包括西藏,由于西藏的健康保险保费收入缺失较为严重)的面板数据进行分析。本文使用了健康保险保费收入、城镇单位就业人员工资总额、个人所得税、老年抚养比、基本医疗保险参保比例、医疗保健费用以及高中学历人口占比等七个指标,其中本文首次使用了个人所得税和医疗保健费用两个指标。目前,有关健康保险需求的研究主要采用时间序列分析方法和面板数据分析方法,而采用时间序列和面板数据分析方法的,较少涉及空间分析。这两种方法虽然能一定程度上反映问题本质,但都有一定的缺陷。在运用时间序列进行研究时,一般都要求数据时间维度较长,而实际中数据的时间维度往往较短;在运用面板数据分析方法时又会过分强调序列的平稳性。这些问题都可以通过在面板数据中加入空间权重得以解决,所以本文采用在面板数据中加入空间权重的方法去研究健康保险需求的影响因素。首先本文对所选数据进行空间相关性检验,检验出健康保险保费收入确实存在空间相关性,可以使用空间计量分析方法。在模型的选择上运用了豪斯曼(Hausman)检验,结果显示适合使用固定效应模型。通过拉格朗日检验得出,适合使用固定空间误差模型。然后对本文所选的数据建立固定空间误差模型,估计的结果显示城镇单位就业人员工资总额、个人所得税、基本医疗保险参保比例、医疗保健费用以及老年抚养比五个指标是显著影响健康保费收入的,而且都是正向相关;高中学历人口占比对健康保费收入的影响不显著。最后本文结合实证结果给出了相应的政策建议,其中对政府的建议是建立个人健康储蓄账户、收入分配公平化以及税收优惠政策;对保险公司的建议是根据人群需要设计有针对性的产品以及找准市场开拓的重点。本文第一章为绪论,分别阐述了本文的研究背景和意义、思路与方法、创新与不足,并系统地介绍了当前国内外的研究现状。第二章为商业保险的概述及市场现状,主要介绍了我国商业健康保险的特征和产品分类、需求和供给现状分析、以及我国政府对商业健康保险的监管。第三章为我国商业健康保险需求影响因素分析,主要通过经济与政策因素、风险因素和社会因素三方面来进行分析。第四章和第五章为本文的核心部分。第四章为商业健康保险需求影响因素的实证分析,该章介绍了数据来源和变量描述、模型说明及模型的构建。第五章为结论和政策性建议,政策性建议分为对于政府的建议和对保险公司的建议。
[Abstract]:China's commercial health insurance originated in the early 1980s.1996 at the end of the year, the government launched a basic medical insurance system for urban employees, marking the commercial health insurance business China began in full swing. But its development is not very smooth, there seems to be a contradiction of health insurance: on the one hand, the market space is staggering, the public demands on the other; on the one hand, the market supply is weak. This state can not meet the demand for health insurance, and the highest ideals from insurance and service to the society. How to solve this problem, promote the smooth development of health insurance is the focus of this paper. This article mainly carries on the analysis and quantification on demand of commercial health insurance. First understand the existing the development of commercial health insurance market, on this basis, through extensive reading of literature, 2005 to 2014 30 in China Provinces, city, autonomous region (not including Tibet, due to Tibet's health insurance premium income loss is more serious) panel data analysis. We use the health insurance premium income, the total wage employment in urban units, personal income tax, the elderly dependency ratio, the proportion of medical insurance, medical care and high school education accounted for seven of the population index ratio, this paper first use of the personal income tax and health care costs of two indicators. At present, the research on the health insurance demand, mainly by the method of time series analysis and panel data analysis method, and uses the time series and panel data analysis method, less involved in these two kinds of spatial analysis. Although the method can reflect the essence of the problem, but there are some defects in the research. By using the time series, generally require data between dimensions and long. The actual data in the time dimension are short; stability in the use of panel data analysis and overemphasise sequence. These problems can be solved by adding spatial weights in panel data, this paper used to study the factors affecting the demand for health insurance so the method of adding spatial weights in panel data in the first. The spatial correlation test of the selected data, check out the health insurance the existence of spatial correlation, spatial econometric analysis methods can be used. The choice of the model by Houseman (Hausman) test, results show the suitability of using fixed effect model. Through the Lagrange test results, suitable for the use of fixed spatial error model. The establishment of a fixed space error the model of this paper and the selected data, the estimation results show that total wage employment in urban units, personal income The proportion of tax, basic medical insurance, medical care and the elderly dependency ratio five indicators are significantly affecting the health of premium income, and are positively related to high school education; population effect on health insurance premium income is not significant. Finally, the empirical results gave the corresponding policy recommendations, including advice to the government is the establishment of personal health savings accounts, equitable distribution of income and the tax preferential policies; the insurance company's recommendations are based on the needs of the people to design targeted products and identify key market development. In this paper, chapter one is the introduction, which introduces the research background and significance, ideas and methods, innovation and deficiencies, and system introduces the research status at home and abroad. The second chapter is the overview and market status of commercial insurance, mainly introduced the characteristics and products of China's commercial health insurance Division Class, analysis of the current situation of supply and demand, and supervision of Chinese government on the commercial health insurance. The third chapter analyzes the influence factors of commercial health insurance in China, mainly through economic and policy factors, three risk factors and social factors were analyzed. The fourth chapter and the fifth chapter is the core part of this paper. The fourth chapter is an empirical analysis of the factors affecting the demand of commercial health insurance, this chapter introduces the sources of data and variables, and builds models to illustrate the model. The fifth chapter is the conclusion and policy suggestion and policy suggestions for the government divided into suggestions and on the insurance company's proposal.

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F842.6

【参考文献】