中国养老保险的长寿风险及管理

发布时间：2018-02-21 10:33

本文关键词： 长寿风险随机死亡率模型养老金缺口风险管理政策建议　出处：《华东师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人口老龄化已成为全球化的趋势,这种趋势导致我国养老保险体系面临着严峻的长寿风险。我国的基本养老保险制度是社会统筹与个人账户相结合的模式,延长的养老金支付必然会影响我国基本养老保险金个人账户资金的收支平衡,也会导致商业保险公司面临严峻的偿付能力风险。本文就是基于养老保险中的长寿风险展开探讨,分析我国人口未来的死亡率,刻画长寿风险的影响,为养老保险制度的管理提供建议。文章基于我国1994-2010年的全国分性别分年龄人口死亡率数据,使用Coale-Kisker方法将缺失的高龄死亡率扩展到100岁,借助经典的Lee-Carter随机死亡率预测模型,对未来十年(2011-2020年)分性别分年龄的死亡率及平均预期寿命进行预测,进而粗略编制了CL1013(2010-2013)寿险业养老金业务生命表,与CL0003(2000-2003)生命表比较,发现寿命延长了3-4岁。针对本文的研究结果,提出的策略如下：第一,通过对养老金计发系数的分析,表明我国现行的养老金计发月数普遍太低,扩大了我国的养老金缺口,建议延迟退休年龄,并且拓宽投资渠道以提高投资回报率。第二,人口寿命的延长,使得商业保险公司对年金产品的支付时间延长3-4年,会导致商业保险公司面临偿付能力风险,建议调整保费、借助金融工具提高投资收益率。第三,分析了国内外的养老保险制度的改革对我国未来的借鉴经验,并详细讨论了我国各地区的生育水平,提出微调计划生育政策,给出“单独二胎”试点方案。
[Abstract]:The aging of the population has become the trend of globalization, which leads to the serious risk of longevity in China's old-age insurance system. The basic old-age insurance system in China is a combination of social planning and personal accounts. The extended pension payment will inevitably affect the balance of income and expenditure of the personal account funds of the basic old-age insurance fund in China, and will also lead to the commercial insurance companies facing severe solvency risks. This paper is based on the longevity risk in the old-age insurance. This paper analyzes the future mortality rate of Chinese population, depicts the influence of longevity risk, and provides suggestions for the management of endowment insurance system. Based on the data of China's population mortality by sex and age from 1994 to 2010, the Coale-Kisker method is used to extend the missing mortality rate to 100 years old. The classical Lee-Carter stochastic mortality prediction model is used to predict the mortality rate. This paper forecasts the mortality rate and average life expectancy by sex and age in the next ten years (2011-2020), and then compiles roughly the life table of pension business in life insurance industry. Compared with the life table of CL0003 / 2000-2003, it is found that the life span has been increased by 3-4 years. According to the research results of this paper, the proposed strategies are as follows: first, through the analysis of the pension planning and payment coefficient, it shows that the current pension months in China are generally too low, which widens the pension gap in China, and proposes to delay the retirement age. And broaden investment channels to improve the return on investment. Second, the prolongation of the life span of the population and the prolongation of the payment time of commercial insurance companies to annuity products by 3-4 years will result in commercial insurance companies facing solvency risks. It is recommended that the premiums be adjusted. Third, it analyzes the experience of the reform of the endowment insurance system at home and abroad to the future of our country, and discusses in detail the fertility level in various regions of our country, and puts forward the fine-tuning family planning policy. The pilot program of "single second child" is given.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.67

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