基于风险区划的农业干旱保险费率厘定以及风险管理初探

发布时间：2018-02-21 16:10

本文关键词： 风险区划农业保险费率厘定风险管理冬小麦干旱指标自然水分亏缺率　出处：《南京信息工程大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,在气候变化和极端天气气候事件频发的背景下,干旱等农业气象灾害的频发已对我国的粮食生产和粮食安全以及农业发展的可持续性带来了严重威胁。而河北省作为我国粮食生产大省,粮食生产状况对于确保全省乃至全国的粮食安全具有重要意义。选择或构建合适的农业干旱灾害风险指标开展干旱风险区划,并在此基础上进行灾害的保险费率厘定和区划对于丰富农业保险模式,促进农业保险经营的稳定和发展具有重要的应用价值。因此,本文以河北省冬麦区为例,基于自然水分亏缺率指数、降水距平百分率指数和抗旱指数等指标以及三者之间的权重系数构建干旱综合风险指数,开展干旱风险区划研究,丰富我国干旱监测及风险区划指标体系,并利用修正后的纯保险费率,得到适用于本研究区的保险费率厘定模型,探寻一种能较全面改善目前农业保险经营弊端的保险模式,在此干旱风险区划和费率厘定的基础上,研究并提出了干旱风险管理系统模式和方案,为政府有效应对农业旱灾,开展防灾减灾管理提供技术参考理论依据。主要结果和结论如下： (1)基于自然水分亏缺率指数(Wi)、降水距平百分率(Ji)和抗旱指数(Ai)等指标,在利用灰色关联法确定权重(a=0.320,b=0.373,c=0.307)的基础上,构建了干旱综合风险指数Bi=(Wi*a+Ji*b)·(Ai*c),进行了研究区的干旱风险区划,并结合冬小麦减产率和干旱灾害发生频次,开展了干旱综合风险指数Bi的验证,从空间尺度上表明了构建的干旱综合风险指数Bi具有一定的适用性和可靠性。 (2)分析了不同干旱指数的时空分布特征。从时间序列变化上看,自然水分亏缺率指数和降水距平百分率指数在41年中,达到重旱年份的概率依次为22%和44%；抗旱指数和综合干旱指数在16年中,达到重旱年份的概率为6.3%和25%。从风险区划结果的空间分布看,本文构建的干旱综合风险指数反映的风险等级情况与其它干旱指数基本一致,其与气候条件、地形状况以及农田水利设施分布等有着密切的联系。 (3)在利用非参数法厘定冬小麦单产保险的纯费率的基础上,结合冬小麦干旱综合风险指数,修正了实际保险费率。通过干旱综合风险指数与旱灾频次的线性关系和自然水分亏缺率指数与旱灾频次的线性关系对比发现,本文构建的干旱综合风险指数是最可靠的,对于纯保险费率的修正具有一定的应用价值。 (4)构建了包含干旱防灾、应急响应和恢复救助系统在内的干旱风险管理框架体系和模型,并结合干旱灾害风险综合指数和费率厘定的区划结果,提出了河北省干旱灾害的风险管理方案和具体措施,为地方政府开展防灾减灾和应急服务提供决策参考。
[Abstract]:In recent years , in the context of climate change and extreme weather events , the frequency of agricultural meteorological disasters such as drought has seriously threatened the food production and food security of our country and the sustainability of agricultural development . ( 1 ) Based on the indexes such as natural water deficit ratio index ( Wi ) , precipitation distance adjustment ( Ji ) and drought index ( Ai ) , the drought risk index Bi = ( Wi * a + Ji * b ) 路 ( Ai * c ) was established on the basis of using the gray correlation method to determine the weight ( a = 0.320 , b = 0.373 , c = 0.307 ) . The drought risk index Bi = ( Wi * a + Ji * b ) 路 ( Ai * c ) was constructed . ( 2 ) The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of different drought indices were analyzed . From the time series , the probability of the natural water deficit index and the precipitation anomaly index was 22 % and 44 % in 41 years . The drought index and the comprehensive drought index reached the drought year ' s probability of 6.3 % and 25 % in 16 years . ( 3 ) Based on the use of the non - parametric method to determine the pure rate of winter wheat ' s single - birth insurance , the author revised the actual premium rate by combining the drought comprehensive risk index of winter wheat and the linear relationship between the index of drought and drought frequency and the linear relation between natural water deficit ratio index and drought frequency . ( 4 ) The drought risk management framework system and model , including drought disaster prevention , emergency response and recovery and rescue system , are constructed , and the risk management plan and concrete measures of drought disaster in Hebei Province are put forward in combination with the regional results of drought disaster risk comprehensive index and rate determination , so as to provide decision - making reference for local governments to carry out disaster prevention and mitigation and emergency services .

【学位授予单位】：南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.66;S423

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