中国城镇职工社会养老保险基金未来收支缺口的精算预测

发布时间：2018-02-27 16:28

本文关键词： 人口老龄化养老金缺口人口预测模型养老金收支模型　出处：《山东财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：由于我国部分积累制的社会养老保险制度改革实施较晚，改制成本无法在短时间内消化，再加上养老金投资渠道窄，收益低，以及人口老龄化的快速到来，未来中国的养老金支付将面临巨大风险。为了维持社会养老保险制度的持续健康运行，维护老年人的合法权益和社会的稳定，对未来一个较长时期内社会养老保险收支规模及其缺口进行精算预测已成为我们必须解决的重大课题。鉴于本人掌握的资料有限，本文仅就未来30年内中国城镇企业职工的社会养老保险收支规模及其可能出现的缺口进行精算预测。本论文共分六章：第一章为绪论。说明本选题的背景、意义，以及本文的研究方法、研究思路及创新之处。第二章主要阐述了城镇职工养老保险的相关理论基础。介绍了养老基金的概念、筹资方式、中国养老保险制度的演变以及国内外相关研究综述。第三章描述了我国城镇职工养老基金的收支现状，在此基础上从不同层次上解释了“养老金缺口”的含义，并对其形成原因进行了深层次分析。第四章对未来中国30年城镇职工养老基金收支缺口进行了精算预测。本章主要分为两个部分，一是采用分年龄预测的方法利用logistic人口预测模型对我国未来30年内的城镇人口进行预测，，在此基础上，预测未来城镇企业职工劳动力人口和退休人口；二是建立我国城镇职工养老保险统筹账户的收支模型，在替代率不同的情况下对2011-2040年的养老金收支进行测算，进而对养老基金的未来缺口进行预测。第五章是在前几章分析的基础上，提出了解决未来中国城镇企业养老基金收支缺口的政策建议。第六章为本文的结论与展望。该章主要总结了本文的研究结论、不足之处，提出了尚需进一步研究的问题。通过本文的分析得出结论：在不同的养老金替代率下我国城镇企业职工社会养老基金未来30年的缺口情况不同；同时，国家在采取措施弥补基金缺口时，需要平衡养老金缺口与退休人员生活水平之间的关系。
[Abstract]:Because our country part of the accumulation of social endowment insurance system reform for the implementation of late, restructuring costs can not be digested in a short period of time, plus the pension investment channel is narrow, low income, and the rapid arrival of aging population, Chinese future pension payments will face a huge risk. In order to maintain the healthy operation of the social endowment insurance system. Safeguard the legitimate interests of the elderly and the stability of the society, the actuarial forecast a long period of social endowment insurance balance scale and the gap in the future has become a major issue we must solve. In view of the people have limited information, this paper only can predict social endowment insurance actuarial balance scale within the next 30 years Chinese urban employees and the possible gap. This paper is divided into six chapters:
The first chapter is the introduction. It explains the background and significance of this topic, as well as the research methods, research ideas and innovation of this paper.
The second chapter mainly expounds the theoretical foundation of the endowment insurance for urban workers. It introduces the concept of pension fund, the way of financing, the evolution of China's endowment insurance system and the related research summarization both at home and abroad.
The third chapter describes the income and expenditure status of China's urban pension fund, and explains the meaning of "pension gap" from different levels, and makes a deep analysis of its causes.
The fourth chapter for the future 30 years China urban workers pension fund revenue and expenditure gap of the actuarial prediction. This chapter is divided into two parts, one is the method of age prediction using logistic population forecast of urban population in China in the next 30 years is predicted on the basis of this model, and predict the future urban enterprise workers labor force and the retired population; two is the revenue and expenditure model of pension insurance account for urban workers in China, to calculate 2011-2040 years of pension payments in different replacement rate, to predict the future pension fund gap.
The fifth chapter, based on the analysis of the previous chapters, puts forward the policy proposals to solve the gap between the pension fund and the pension fund of the urban enterprises in China in the future.
The sixth chapter is the conclusion and Prospect of this article. This chapter mainly summarizes the conclusions and shortcomings of this paper, and puts forward some problems that need further study.
Through the analysis of this paper draws the conclusion: the gap of social workers in urban enterprises of China's pension fund for the next 30 years in different pension replacement rate; at the same time, countries take measures to make up for the funding gap, to balance the relationship between the pension gap and the standard of living of retirees.

【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F842.67

【参考文献】