全面放开二孩政策对城镇职工基本养老保险基金平衡的影响

发布时间：2018-02-28 06:53

本文关键词： 全面放开二孩养老金缺口人口预测模型基金收支模型　出处：《河北经贸大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：1978年,为应对我国人口的飞速增长,计划生育政策成为一项基本国策,在刚开始实行的20年里,人口增长得到抑制,劳动年龄人口比例上升,我国进入了人口红利时期。但是进入21世纪以来,人口红利逐渐消失,长期实行的计划生育政策导致我国人口生育率低,人口老龄化严重;同时,我国部分积累制的社会养老保险制度改革实施较晚,无法在短时间内消化改制成本,而且,我国的养老金投资渠道窄,投资收益低,诸多因素预示着未来支付风险问题将困扰着我国的养老保险体系。为了满足人口结构合理化目标需要,我国于2016年实行了全面放开二孩政策,这一政策的实施势必影响未来养老保险基金的平衡。那么,这种影响到底是怎样的?我们必须做出准确的判断,并依此制定或调整社会保险政策。正是基于这样的考虑,本文以此为题进行研究,以期有所收获。本文选取了城镇职工基本养老保险基金这一侧面,以目前实际存在的名义账户制为假设条件,基于目前我国全面放开二孩这一新政策背景,对城镇职工基本养老保险基金的平衡问题进行了研究。为了维持城镇职工基本养老保险基金的持续健康运行,文章就2016—2050年这35年内城镇职工基本养老保险的收入和支出情况建立精算模型,模型中涉及到的相关变量包括:缴费比例、以2015年作为基期的城镇企业职工的年平均工资、年平均工资增长率、城镇参保职工人数、城镇参保职工的退休年龄、城镇参保职工的死亡年龄等。根据模型测算的结论,探讨全面放开二孩政策的效果,并进一步提出落实全面二孩政策的配套改革措施和完善城镇职工基本养老保险制度的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In 1978, in response to the rapid population growth in China, the family planning policy became a basic national policy. In the first 20 years of implementation, population growth was suppressed, and the ratio of working-age population rose. China has entered the period of demographic dividend. However, since 21th century, the dividend has gradually disappeared. The long-term implementation of the family planning policy has led to a low fertility rate and a serious aging population in our country; at the same time, The reform of social endowment insurance system of partial accumulation system in our country is carried out late, which can not digest the cost of reform in a short time. Moreover, the investment channel of pension is narrow and the investment income is low in our country. In order to meet the needs of the rationalization of the population structure, in 2016, China implemented the policy of fully liberalizing the two-child policy. The implementation of this policy is bound to affect the future pension fund balance. We must make accurate judgment and make or adjust the social insurance policy according to this. Based on the existing nominal account system as a hypothetical condition, and based on the background of the new policy of fully liberalizing the second child in our country at present, In order to maintain the sustainable and healthy operation of the basic old-age insurance fund for urban workers, this paper studies the balance of the basic old-age insurance fund for urban workers. This paper establishes an actuarial model on the income and expenditure of basic old-age insurance for urban workers in 2016-2050. The related variables involved in the model include the proportion of contributions, the average annual wages of employees in urban enterprises with 2015 as the base period. The annual average wage growth rate, the number of urban insured workers and staff, the retirement age of urban insured workers, the death age of urban insured workers, etc. According to the conclusions of the model calculation, this paper discusses the effect of fully liberalizing the two-child policy. Furthermore, the paper puts forward the corresponding reform measures to carry out the comprehensive two-child policy and the policy suggestions to perfect the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.67

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