失业保险基金支出与城镇失业率的相关关系研究——基于协整分析与G-ranger检验的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-04 00:27

本文选题：失业保险基金支出　切入点：城镇失业率　出处：《社会保障研究》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国的失业问题已成为社会治理的重大社会风险之一,经济持续下行加之国际贸易保护主义势力抬头,失业率始终居高不下。本文利用失业保险支出和城镇失业率1990-2014年的时间序列数据,利用协整分析和误差修正模型理论,对失业保险支出与城镇失业率的相关关系进行实证分析。结果表明:两者存在长期协整关系,但在短期内,并没有显著关系;两者同时存在明显的双向格兰杰因果关系,两者联系密切、相互影响。关注两者的相互关系,有利于完善失业保险的治理结构。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the unemployment problem in China has become one of the major social risks in social governance. The unemployment rate is always high. This paper uses the time series data of unemployment insurance expenditure and urban unemployment rate from 1990 to 2014, using cointegration analysis and error correction model theory, This paper makes an empirical analysis on the correlation between unemployment insurance expenditure and urban unemployment rate. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between them, but in the short term, there is no significant relationship, and there is a bidirectional Granger causality relationship between them. They are closely related and influence each other. Paying close attention to the relationship between the two is beneficial to the improvement of the governance structure of unemployment insurance.
【作者单位】：暨南大学公共管理学院/应急管理学院;武汉大学社会保障研究中心;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“社会保障基金与偿付能力管理研究”(项目编号:16JJD840011);教育部重大攻关项目“渐进式延迟退休年龄政策的社会经济效应研究”(项目批准号:14JZD026)资助国家哲学社会科学基金项目“健全社会保障管理体制和经办服务体系研究”(课题编号:14BSH108)
【分类号】：F249.2;F812.45;F842.61

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