中国社会保险缴费率的降低空间与方案模拟——以城镇企业职工基本养老保险为例

发布时间：2018-03-04 04:13

本文选题：基本养老保险　切入点：缴费负担　出处：《财经论丛》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：以城镇企业职工基本养老保险为例,在确保基金2016~2090年正常运转的前提下,通过建立精算模型分析缴费率是否具备降低空间,研究发现:如果退休年龄自2022年每年延迟3个月直至65岁,且"全面二孩"生育意愿达到61%及以上,缴费率可从28%降至25.51%~27.94%;进一步,如果允许养老保险基金入市,且投资收益率达到全国社保基金理事会公布的8.82%,无论"全面二孩"生育意愿为多少,缴费率可降至24.43%~26.41%;再进一步,如果政府继续减持国有股充实全国社保基金,缴费率可降至23.63%~25.54%。综上所述,为减轻用人单位和职工的缴费负担,除采取延迟退休和鼓励生育等措施外,政府还可尽快完善养老金入市、减持国有股充实社保基金。
[Abstract]:Taking the basic old-age insurance for urban enterprise workers as an example, on the premise of ensuring the normal operation of the fund from 2016 to 2090, the paper establishes an actuarial model to analyze whether there is room for the reduction of the contribution rate. The study found that if the retirement age is delayed from 2022 to age 65 by three months per year, and the willingness to have a "full child" is 61% or more, the contribution rate can be reduced from 28% to 25.51 and 27.94. Further, if the pension fund is allowed to enter the market, And the rate of return on investment has reached 8.82 as announced by the National Social Security Fund Board. No matter what the willingness of the "all-around two-child" to bear, the contribution rate can be reduced to 24.43 and 26.41. Further, if the government continues to reduce its state-owned shares and replenish the National Social Security Fund, The contribution rate can be reduced to 23.630.54. in summary, in order to lighten the burden of payment by employers and workers, in addition to taking measures such as delaying retirement and encouraging fertility, the government can also improve the pension system as soon as possible and reduce its holding of state-owned shares to enrich the social security fund.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学公共管理学院;上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目(15XRK005)
【分类号】：F842.67

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