风险评估下生猪保险需求研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 06:45

本文选题：动物疫病　切入点：风险分析　出处：《华中农业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济社会的快速发展,我国居民动物食品消费大幅增加,由此推动了畜禽产业的高速发展。截止2012年底,我国已发展成为畜禽产品生产与消费的第一大国,畜禽产业在改善国人食物结构、增加农民收入及保障食物供给安全方面发挥了越来越大的作用。但与此相伴随的动物疫病风险问题也愈演愈烈,逐渐上升成为制约我国畜牧业持续发展的首要因素,并且还引发了较为严重的公共卫生安全危机。生猪保险作为生猪养殖业风险管理的有效手段,成功地实现将农业风险在全社会范围内予以分摊,在保障我国养殖业稳定发展,控制疫病风险方面发挥了重要的作用。但是我国生猪保险发展过程中也存在着一定的问题,其中最为关键的便是养殖户对生猪保险有效需求不足的难题,造成这种现象有诸多方面的原因,而根据国内外学者的相关研究,生猪保险保费制定不合理,导致生猪保险价格与价值出现较大的偏离,是致使农户生猪保险购买意愿较低的主要原因之一。因此,本文将围绕上述问题展开研究,首先从疫病风险角度,构建了我国生猪疫病风险分布模型,并在此基础上对我国生猪疫病灾害风险进行了有效度量,旨在为我国生猪保险费率的制定提供一定的理论支撑；其次,从养殖户的角度出发,根据实地调研所获得的数据,运用实证方法分析造成我国生猪保险购买需求不足的原因。首先,本文先对生猪风险评估及生猪保险需求相关国内外文献进行了相关梳理和阐述,其次对本文所需的相关理论基础也进行了介绍分析,以期为之后的研究分析打好基础。其次,以我国生猪养殖业重大疫病为例,通过将疫病风险与生猪死亡数之间的关系进行量化,运用极值POT模型对我国生猪疫病灾害损失尾部分布进行了有效拟合,构建了我国生猪重大疫病损失的广义Pareto分布模型。并利用风险价值法,实证分析和度量了我国生猪疫病发生的风险水平,计算出我国不同等级的生猪疫病风险损失的95%置信区间,构建了我国生猪疫病风险评估的基本框架。随后,基于养殖户的视角,利用四川省资阳市实地调研所获取的188户生猪养殖户的问卷资料展开实证分析,以我国生猪保险的购买意愿为切入点,从微观视角研究了生猪保险作为生猪疫病风险管理重要手段的有效性。研究结果表明,养殖规模、养殖意愿、投保程序、养殖保险了解状况、保费补贴政策了解程度,疫病状况是影响养殖户生猪保险购买意愿的主要因素,进而对生猪保险发挥对疫病风险控制作用产生重大的影响。最后,通过对我国生猪重大生猪疫病灾害风险的分析评估及养殖户生猪保险购买意愿的影响因素分析,提出了相关建议：强化风险研究,构建疫病风险分布模型；逐渐构建畜牧业商业保险,形成全方位的畜牧保险体系；制定有效地防控政策,高财政资金的利用效率；提高我国畜牧业养殖方式,实现规模化经营；完善扑杀补偿机制；完善我国生猪保险法律法规,修改或调整生猪保险条例中不合理成分；实施动物疫病的区域化管理,加强我国无规定动物疫病区建设。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and society, China's consumption of animal food consumption increased significantly, thus promoting the rapid development of the poultry industry. By the end of 2012, China has become the first big country of production and consumption of livestock products, livestock and poultry industry in improving food structure of Chinese people, played an increasing role in increasing farmers' income and ensure food supply safety. But the animal disease risk associated with this has intensified, and gradually rose to become the primary factor restricting the sustainable development of animal husbandry in China, and also led to the serious public health security crisis. Pig insurance as an effective means of risk management of pig breeding industry, successfully achieve the agricultural risk in in the range of the whole society to share in, to ensure the stable development of aquaculture in China, has played an important role in controlling the epidemic risk. But China's pig insurance. There are also some problems in the development process, is the most crucial problem of insufficient farmers on pig insurance effective demand, cause there are many reasons for this phenomenon, and according to the related research of scholars at home and abroad, pig insurance premium set unreasonable, resulting in pig insurance price and the value of a larger deviation that is one of the main causes of farmers pig insurance purchase intention is low. Therefore, this paper will focus on the above issues, firstly, from the perspective of disease risk, constructs a model of risk distribution of pig disease in our country, and on the basis of pig disease disasters in China are effective risk measure, to provide certain theoretical support to develop as China's pig insurance premium; secondly, starting from the perspective of farmers, according to the field survey data obtained by empirical analysis result of China's pig insurance purchase The reason for the shortage of demand.
First of all, this paper first reviews and reviews relevant literatures on pig risk assessment and pig insurance demand. Secondly, it introduces and analyzes the relevant theoretical basis of this paper, hoping to lay a solid foundation for future research and analysis.
Secondly, with China's pig breeding industry of major diseases, for example, the relationship between the number of pig disease risk and death are quantified by the maximum POT model is effective to fit the epidemic disaster losses in China pig tail distribution, constructing the generalized Pareto distribution model of China's pig diseases of major loss. And the risk value method. The empirical analysis and measurement of the occurrence of pig disease in our country risk level, calculate the pig disease risk loss of different grade in our country of the 95% confidence interval, the basic framework of constructing pig disease risk assessment in China.
Subsequently, farmers from the perspective of empirical analysis by using Sichuan city in Ziyang Province, the investigation of the acquired 188 pig farmers survey data on pig insurance in China's purchase intention as the breakthrough point, from the micro perspective of pig pig disease risk insurance as an important means of effective physical results. The scale of farming, aquaculture, will, insurance procedures, aquaculture insurance premium subsidies to understand the situation, understanding the extent, disease status is the main factor affecting the willingness of farmers to buy insurance, and thus have a significant impact on the risk for disease control effect on pig insurance play.
Finally, analysis of the factors affecting the purchase intention through the China pig major epidemic disaster risk assessment and analysis of the pig pig farmers insurance, puts forward related suggestions: strengthen risk research, disease risk distribution model; gradually build commercial insurance of animal husbandry, animal husbandry and the formation of a full range of insurance system; to develop effective prevention and control policies, efficiency the use of financial funds; to improve China's animal husbandry, realize scale management; perfect compensation mechanism; perfect the insurance laws and regulations of our country, modify or adjust the insurance regulations unreasonable; the regional management of the implementation of animal disease, strengthen the construction of animal disease free Zone in our country.

【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.66;F326.3

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