云南省城镇职工基本养老保险基金测算与可持续性研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 01:34

本文选题：人口老龄化　切入点：养老金收支模型　出处：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经过长期改革、完善,我国已经初步建立起与市场经济体制相适应的、社会统筹和个人账户相结合的统一的城镇职工基本养老保险制度。但是,由于转轨成本无法在短期得到有效解决、制度设计不尽完善以及人口老龄化加剧等因素,未来中国的养老金支付将面临巨大风险,引发了社会各界对该制度合理性的广泛关注。城镇职工基本养老保险制度的建立和完善有助于保障职工退休后的基本生活,维护老年人的合法权益和社会的稳定,也有助于促进国家财政预算制度的不断完善。因此,研究城镇职工基本养老保险制度的可持续发展具有重要的理论价值和现实意义,对未来一个较长时期内城镇职工养老保险基金收支规模及其收支平衡趋势进行精算预测对于政府提前调整政策,应对可能出现的城镇职工养老金问题具有重大的参考价值。本文采用人口发展模型,运用matlab软件,对云南省城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支进行了科学预测,选择符合云南省实际情况的人口指标,预测出未来30年云南省城镇人口及其结构变动趋势;在现行政策下建立养老保险收支模型,测算得出城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支平衡趋势。基本结论为城镇职工基本养老保险基金将在2020年首次出现缺口,养老金平衡曲线在2024年首次达到波谷,养老金缺口规模为2467.11亿元,在30年间将出现三次拐点,从2028年以后城镇职工基本养老保险基金将持续出现缺口;城镇职工基本养老保险基金累计缺口的绝对值占当年财政支出的百分比将在10%左右,养老金缺口将极大影响财政支出结构及城镇职工基本养老保障制度的可持续性。采用敏感性分析法对影响城镇职工养老金运行的“五普数据”进行研究,结果表明养老金贡献率、养老金调整指数、养老金替代率、退休年龄等因素将直接影响城镇职工养老金缺口规模和城镇职工基本养老保险制度可持续性。本文建议政府从以下几个方面制定符合云南省省情的城镇职工基本养老保险政策:完善退休制度,严控“低龄退休”;增强收入能力,加强宣传、提高缴费意识;合理区分人群,延长退休年龄;健全收支制度,推动四本预算衔接、防止冒领挪用;规范养老金投资管理制度,提高养老金投资收益率。
[Abstract]:After a long period of reform, perfect, China has initially established to adapt to market economy system, the basic old-age insurance system for urban employees unified social pooling and individual accounts. However, due to the transition cost can not be effectively solved in the short term, system design is not perfect, the aging population and other factors, the future Chinese the pension payment will face a huge risk, caused the social from all walks of life to the rationality of system wide attention. The basic old-age insurance system for urban employees establish and improve the protection of workers after retirement of the basic life, safeguard the legitimate interests of the elderly and social stability, but also help to promote the continuous national financial budget system perfect. Therefore, has important theoretical value and practical significance for sustainable development of the basic pension insurance system of urban workers, in the future a long period of time Urban workers pension insurance fund balance scale and balance trend of actuarial forecast for the government ahead of adjustment policies, pension problems should likely have great reference value. This paper uses the model of population development, the use of MATLAB software, to make a scientific prediction of Yunnan province urban basic pension insurance fund balance, with the actual population index Yunnan Province, forecast the next 30 years in Yunnan province and its urban population structure change; the establishment of pension balance model under the existing policy, estimates that the balance trend of fundamental pension insurance fund for urban workers. The basic conclusion is the basic old-age insurance fund for urban workers will for the first time in 2020 for the first time to the pension gap, the equilibrium curve in the trough in 2024, the pension gap size of 246 billion 711 million yuan, there will be three times in 30 years. Since 2028, urban basic old-age insurance fund gap will continue to appear; the absolute value of the cumulative shortfall of urban basic old-age insurance fund accounting for the percentage of fiscal expenditure will be around 10%, the pension gap will greatly influence the sustainability of the basic pension system of fiscal expenditure structure and urban workers. By using the sensitivity analysis method of influence urban workers pension operation "five census data" was studied. The results show that the pension contribution rate, the pension adjustment index, pension replacement rate, retirement age and other factors will directly affect the sustainability of urban workers pension gap and the scale of urban workers' basic pension insurance system. This paper suggests that the government from the following aspects in line with the development of basic endowment insurance for urban workers Yunnan Province: improve the retirement system, strictly controlling the "low age retirement"; enhance the earning capacity, and Strong propaganda, improve payment consciousness; reasonable distinction between people, to extend the retirement age; improve the payments system, to promote the four budget cohesion, to prevent misappropriation of impersonator pension investment management; standard system, improve the pension investment rate of return.

【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.67

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