人口老龄化、消费支出与医疗保险可持续性

发布时间：2018-03-21 11:01

本文选题：人口老龄化　切入点：消费支出　出处：《现代经济探讨》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文从理论和实证两个角度,以老年人口消费支出为切入点,构建了一个简单的两期OLG模型,选取2000年-2014年的时间序列数据,利用门槛回归模型估计方法进行实证分析,深入探索人口老龄化对医疗保险可持续性的影响。实证结果表明,人口老龄化对医疗保险可持续性影响存在"U"型的特点。如果老年人口消费支出高于某个临界值,老龄化对于医疗保险的可持续性具有正向影响;如果老年人口消费支出低于某个临界值,老龄化对于医疗保险的可持续性具有不利影响。临界值(门槛值)估计为老年人口消费支出占DGP的19%左右(OLS估计为18.9657%,GMM估计为19.1645%)。基于以上研究发现,本文提出加快建立覆盖全国的社会养老保障体系、应该合理地调整我国的生育政策和退休政策、实施银色经济发展战略,大力发展老龄金融和老年房地产业,提高老年人口的收入水平和消费能力,提高我国医疗保险的可持续性。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a simple two-period OLG model is constructed from the perspective of theory and practice, and the time series data from 2000 to 2014 are selected, and the threshold regression model estimation method is used to carry out empirical analysis. The empirical results show that the impact of population aging on the sustainability of health insurance is of a "U" type. If the consumption expenditure of the elderly population exceeds a certain critical value, Ageing has a positive impact on the sustainability of health insurance; if older people spend less than a certain threshold, Ageing has a negative impact on the sustainability of health insurance. The critical value (threshold) is estimated to be about 19% of DGP for the elderly population, and 18.9657 GMM is estimated to be 19.1645. In this paper, it is suggested that to speed up the establishment of a nationwide social old-age security system, we should rationally adjust our country's fertility and retirement policies, implement the silver economic development strategy, and vigorously develop the aging finance and the elderly real estate industry. Improve the income level and consumption capacity of the elderly population and improve the sustainability of medical insurance in China.
【作者单位】：清华大学公共管理学院;
【分类号】：C924.24;F126.1;F842.684

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