我国企业职工退休年龄与养老金替代率研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 19:52

本文选题：人口老龄化　切入点：养老金　出处：《上海社会科学院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：根据联合国的预测,人口老龄化的趋势不再像以前那样维持在稳定的态势。截至21世纪初,几乎在任何国家,人口老龄化比例相当严重,都增长达两到三个百分点(Jackson,2002)。尤其是在发达国家,老年人群基本上占据了人数总量的15%。联合国数据的预测表明,老年人数在全球占比截至2030年将预计接近25%,预期2050年,该数值将会增长至30%(联合国,2013)。第六次人口普查显示我国人口老龄化的趋势进一步加快。在全国人口快速老龄化的背景下,我国社会养老保险收支失衡的问题日益突出。政府有关部门希望通过延迟参保职工退休年龄的办法来缓解养老金支付问题。但是,绝大多数企业职工不赞成和不支持延迟退休年龄的政策意图。其中的一个重要原因是,当前的养老金计发办法没有为延迟退休年龄提供足够的激励,反而可能存在反向激励。本文对2011年中国健康和老年人养老追踪调查(CHARLS)及2013年和2014年的跟踪调查的1001份问卷的相关数据分析表明,85%以上的男性职工和90%以上的女性职工没有选择延迟退休。男性职工的平均退休年龄为57.36岁,女性职工的平均退休年龄仅为50.34岁。本文利用养老金替代率水平与个人延迟退休的意愿进行回归,回归结果显示,个人延迟退休与养老金替代率在10%的显著水平上呈现负相关,当引入职称变量之后,结果表现出1%以上的显著负相关。而将因变量延迟退休替换为样本真实退龄之后,结果显示个人实际退出劳动市场的年龄与养老金替代率并不相关。本文的实证研究分析表明,当讨论了其他控制变量的作用情况下,总体来说,劳动者选择延迟退休的养老金替代率将降低15.2%,其中,男职工的延迟退休与养老金替代率关系并不显著,而女职工延迟退休会更大程度的降低替代率,这说明如今基本养老金保障体系未能鼓励职工延迟退休,反而具有使得退休者提早离职的收益激励。结果反映延后退休并未切合劳动人员个人意愿和决策,当前实行的基本养老保障制度也未能实现鼓励延后获取养老金的年龄的目标,从而推迟退休政策也很难得到落实。
[Abstract]:According to United Nations projections, the trend of population ageing is no longer as stable as it used to be. By the beginning of the twenty-first century, the proportion of population ageing was quite serious in almost any country. Especially in developed countries, older people account for almost 15 percent of the total. According to United Nations data, the proportion of older people in the world is expected to be close to 25 by 2030, and it is expected to be close to 25 by 2050. The number will rise to 30. (the sixth census shows that the trend of population aging in our country has further accelerated. In the context of the rapid aging of the national population, The problem of imbalance in income and expenditure of social endowment insurance is becoming more and more serious in China. The government departments concerned hope to alleviate the problem of pension payment by delaying the retirement age of insured workers. The vast majority of corporate workers disagree with and do not support the policy intent to delay the retirement age. One important reason is that the current pension scheme does not provide sufficient incentives to delay the retirement age. On the contrary, there may be reverse incentives. The data analysis of 1001 questionnaires from China Health and Old-Age tracking Survey in 2011 and 2013 and 2014 shows that more than 85% of male workers and more than 90% of women are female. Sex workers did not choose to delay retirement. The average retirement age for male workers was 57.36 years. The average retirement age of female workers is only 50.34 years old. This paper uses the level of pension replacement rate and the willingness of individual to delay retirement. The regression results show that there is a negative correlation between individual delayed retirement and pension replacement rate at a significant level of 10%. When the title variable was introduced, the results showed a significant negative correlation of more than 1%. The results show that the age at which individuals actually withdraw from the labour market is not related to the pension replacement rate. The empirical analysis of this paper shows that, when the role of other control variables is discussed, generally speaking, The pension replacement rate of workers who choose to delay retirement will be reduced by 15.2s. among them, the relation between male workers' delayed retirement and pension replacement rate is not significant, but the female workers' delayed retirement will reduce the replacement rate to a greater extent. This shows that today's basic pension system does not encourage workers to delay retirement, but instead provides an incentive for retirees to leave early. The result reflects that the delay in retirement is not in line with the individual wishes and decisions of workers. The current basic old-age pension system has also failed to meet the goal of encouraging delays in the age at which pensions are received, making it difficult to implement the policy of postponing retirement.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.67

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