基于养老保险制度可持续性的退休年龄的优化设定

发布时间：2018-04-05 14:37

本文选题：退休年龄　切入点：养老保险　出处：《山东财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，伴随着社会经济、文化的不断发展，我国人口结构类型也发生着变化，老龄化的程度持续加深，从而导致我国未来30年内进入退休年龄期的老年人口将大幅度增加。在人口结构趋向老龄化和人均预期寿命不断提高的背景下，世界各国社会养老基金收支平衡都面临着巨大的挑战。随着我国养老金“空账”问题的日益严重，以及人口老龄化带来的养老保险基金账户支出的增大，“延迟退休”成为社会各界关注的焦点问题。由此政府已把“延迟退休年龄”提上日程，十八届三中全会公报重点指出要建立更加公平可持续的社会保障制度，研究制定渐进式退休年龄政策。“延迟退休”已成必然趋势，如何确定最优退休年龄以及如何有效的推行“延迟退休年龄”已成为政府和学界的一项重大课题。本文以养老保险制度的可持续性为出发点，运用精算理论充分考虑养老金缴费率、替代率、缴费年龄、实际工资增长率、死亡年龄等因素，以个人角度出发，构建个人一生中养老金缴纳、领取模型，在社会养老保险制度可持续发展的前提下，按照一个人一生之中缴纳养老金金额和退休后领取养老金金额相平衡的原则，构建了最优退休年龄模型，并分不同行业测算最优退休年龄，以期为社会养老保险体制改革提供指导。本文共分为六部分，结构如下：第1章为绪论，指出了本文的研究背景及意义，并对国内外养老保险基金收支及退休年龄的研究现状进行了综述。在此基础上，提出本文的研究方法、结构安排、创新之处以及不足。第2章为养老保险制度可持续发展的理论分析，理论探讨我国养老保险体系发展进程，以及我国养老保险收支的现状，基于此理论分析了我国养老保险基金收支缺口产生的原因。第3章为个人养老金缴纳和领取的精算模型，主要是以个人角度为视角，构建一个普通人养老金缴纳、收支模型，从而可以近似探讨整个社会的养老金体系。若是能够保证个人一生缴纳养老金总额大于个人一生领取养老金总额则可以保证养老保险基金的可持续性。第4章为最优退休年龄的模型构建及测算不同就业群体的最优退休年龄，首先构建最优退休年龄的精算模型，其次理论分析各影响因素对退休年龄的效应影响，最后利用《2012年统计年鉴》对最优的退休年龄进行实证分析。第5章为延迟退休年龄的措施建议，首先基于本文实证分析提出逐步提高法定退休年龄的方案设计，其次鼓励建立激励相容的养老金给付制度，最后提出应当推行弹性退休制度，以此来适应社会发展。第6章为结论，对本文的研究结论进行表述。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the continuous development of social economy and culture, the type of population structure in China has also changed, and the degree of aging has been deepened, which will lead to a large increase in the number of elderly people who will enter the retirement age in the next 30 years.Against the background of aging population structure and increasing life expectancy, the balance of income and expenditure of social pension funds in the world is facing great challenges.With the increasingly serious problem of "empty account" of pension in China and the increase of the expenditure of pension fund account brought by the aging of the population, "delayed retirement" has become the focus of attention of all walks of life.As a result, the government has put the "deferred retirement age" on the agenda. The communique of the third Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee emphasized the need to establish a more equitable and sustainable social security system and to study and formulate a gradual retirement age policy."delayed retirement" has become an inevitable trend, how to determine the optimal retirement age and how to effectively implement the "delayed retirement age" has become an important issue for the government and academic circles.Based on the sustainability of the old-age insurance system, this paper makes full use of actuarial theory to consider such factors as pension contribution rate, replacement rate, contributory age, real wage growth rate, death age, and so on.This paper constructs a model of pension payment and collection in a person's lifetime. Under the premise of the sustainable development of the social endowment insurance system, it is based on the principle of balance between the amount of pension paid during one's lifetime and the amount of pension received after retirement.The optimal retirement age model is constructed and the optimal retirement age is calculated in different industries in order to provide guidance for the reform of social pension insurance system.This paper is divided into six parts, the structure is as follows:The first chapter is the introduction, pointing out the research background and significance of this paper, and summarizes the research status of pension fund income and expenditure and retirement age at home and abroad.On this basis, this paper puts forward the research methods, structural arrangements, innovations and shortcomings.Chapter 2 is the theoretical analysis of the sustainable development of the old-age insurance system, the theoretical discussion of the development process of the pension insurance system in China, as well as the current situation of the income and expenditure of the old-age insurance system in China.Based on this theory, this paper analyzes the causes of the gap between income and expenditure of pension insurance fund in China.The third chapter is the actuarial model of individual pension payment and receipt, which is mainly from the perspective of individual, and constructs an ordinary pension payment, income and expenditure model, so that the pension system of the whole society can be discussed approximately.The sustainability of the pension fund can be guaranteed if the total amount of the individual's lifetime pension is greater than the total amount of the individual's lifetime pension.In chapter 4, the optimal retirement age model is constructed and calculated for different employment groups. Firstly, an actuarial model of the optimal retirement age is constructed, and then the effect of various influencing factors on retirement age is analyzed theoretically.Finally, the optimal retirement age is empirically analyzed by the Statistical Yearbook of 2012.Chapter 5 is about the measures to delay the retirement age. Firstly, based on the empirical analysis of this paper, the author proposes a scheme to raise the legal retirement age step by step, and then encourages the establishment of an incentive compatible pension payment system.Finally, the flexible retirement system should be implemented in order to adapt to social development.Chapter 6 is the conclusion of this paper.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F249.2;F842.67

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