车险按里程付费定价模式：研究与借鉴

发布时间：2018-04-08 20:39

本文选题：机动车辆保险　切入点：按里程计费　出处：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自鸦片战争汽车保险进入我国后,汽车保险业务的发展经历了一个曲折的历程。1950年,中国人民保险公司开始开办汽车保险,但是因宣传不够和认识的偏颇,1955年,汽车保险停办。1980年,我国全面恢复了汽车保险业务,但是仅占财产保险市场份额的2%。随着改革开放形势的发展,社会经济和人民生活水平也发生了巨大的变化,机动车辆保险业务也随之得到了迅速发展。1988年,汽车保险的保费收入超过了20亿元,从此成为了财产保险的第一大险种。但是随着车辆数量的增加,随之而来的环境问题、保费公平性等问题也日益严重。面对这些问题,美国Progress公司率先推出了按里程定价车险,通过将驾车者的负外部性有效内部化的方式有效减少了对环境、交通等外部效应,这成为一种具有优势的解决途径,并在随后的十几年在世界范围广泛推广。科学的费率是保证汽车保险稳定发展的前提。2012年,我国保险业协会发布了(ABC)条款,标志着机动车辆保险费率市场化的推行。条款规定里程也需作为一项风险因素,但在具体实施时,由于我国缺乏必要的数据和强制性政策,里程因素并没有纳入具体的定价中。本文正是以国外按里程计费车辆保险发展为出发点,以金融学、精算学、统计学为理论基础,采用定量和定性、理论研究和实证分析相结合的方法,对按里程计费车险定价模式的合理性和实际意义进行分析。通过理论和数据的分析,得出按里程计费车险可以增强保费公平性并带来诸多外部效应,并结合我国具体情况,对按里程计费车险在我国的实施提出建议。由于缺乏相关的数据,所以本文在实证分析时都采用了美国CLF研究报告的数据。本文的结构大体可以分为六部分：第一部分：绪论,论述了本研究的选题背景、研究意义、国内外研究现状、研究的思路、方法和创新点。第二部分：介绍按里程计费车险在国外的兴起、发展、及发展中遇到的障碍。第三部分：介绍了国外常见四种按里程计费车险的方案,并进行比较分析。在比较四种定价方案时,从技术角度、外部性、可行性等角度出发,量化分析了不同的定价方案,得出当所有的汽车保费和注册费用同时是按里程定价时是最有效的。第四部分：建立静态模型,通过比较传统定价模式和按里程定价模式,分析按里程计费对驾驶者行为的影响。第五部分：根据美国CLF研究报告的数据从损失赔偿和事故频率两方面分析里程和风险的关系；建立燃油消耗率和里程的模型,研究里程和燃油消耗率的关系,从而得到按里程计费保险对环境污染的影响。第六部分：通过介绍我国车险定价环境,分析按里程计费车险在我国实施中可能遇到的问题并提出几点措施。本文的首次引入数据分析得到里程和风险之间有一定的关系,并运用燃油消耗率与里程的关系分析实施按里程计费后,燃油消耗量将减少即对环境产生正面的影响。除了实证的分析,文章运用数学方法建立静态模型分析实施按里程计费对驾驶者行为的影响：总的来说高里程司机减少里程数,低里程司机增加里程。但是由于缺乏国内的车辆行驶里程数,选取的数据都是国外的,针对性可能没那么强,因此在后续制定策略的时候不能具体到我国的各个省、地区,希望在今后技术的改进下得到进一步研究。
[Abstract]:Since the Opium War car insurance after entering into China, the development of the auto insurance business has experienced a tortuous process in.1950, the People's Insurance Company of China began to open car insurance, but due to lack of propaganda and cognition bias, 1955, auto insurance closed.1980 years, China's total recovery for the car insurance business, but only a share of property insurance the 2%. market with the development of reform and opening up, social economy and people's living standards have undergone tremendous changes, the motor vehicle insurance business has been the rapid development of.1988, auto insurance premium income of more than 2 billion yuan, has become the first of the property insurance. But with the increase of the number of vehicles and the environment the premium, the fairness problem is increasingly serious. Facing these problems, the United States Progress company pioneered the pricing according to the mileage car insurance, through The way of effective internalization of drivers' negative externalities effectively reduces the external effects on environment, transportation and so on. This has become an advantageous solution and has been widely promoted worldwide in the following ten years.
Scientific rate is to guarantee the stable development of automobile insurance of.2012 years, China's Insurance Industry Association released (ABC) terms, marking the rate of motor vehicle insurance market. The implementation of the provisions of the mileage should also be a risk factor, but in practice, due to the lack of necessary data and mandatory policy, mileage has not been included in specific pricing.
This paper is based on the foreign mileage vehicle insurance development as the starting point, to finance, actuarial science, statistics theory, using quantitative and qualitative methods, theoretical research and empirical analysis of the combination, the mileage car insurance pricing model is reasonable and practical significance were analyzed. Through the analysis of theory and data and get the mileage car insurance premiums can enhance the fairness and bring a lot of external effects, combined with the specific situation in China, put forward suggestions of the mileage car insurance in China. Due to the lack of relevant data, this paper is based on the empirical analysis using the CLF study data. The structure of this paper can be roughly is divided into six parts:
The first part is the introduction, which discusses the background of this study, the significance of the research, the current research status at home and abroad, the thinking, method and innovation of the research.
The second part: introduce the rise, development and development of car insurance by mileage in foreign countries.
The third part: introduces four kinds of common mileage car insurance scheme, and a comparative analysis. In the comparison of four kinds of pricing schemes, from a technical point of view, externality, feasibility perspective, quantitative analysis of the different pricing schemes, that when all the car insurance fee and registration fee as mileage pricing is the most effective.
The fourth part: setting up a static model and comparing the traditional pricing model and the mileage pricing model to analyze the influence of mileage charging on the driver's behavior.
The fifth part: according to the CLF study data from two aspects of frequency compensation for damage and accident analysis of mileage and risk; the establishment of the fuel consumption rate and the mileage of the model, the relationship of mileage and fuel consumption rate, so as to get the mileage insurance on the impact of environmental pollution.
The sixth part: by introducing the environment of vehicle insurance pricing in China, this paper analyzes the possible problems that may be encountered in the implementation of car insurance according to mileage and puts forward some measures.
This paper first introduced the data analysis, there is a certain relationship between mileage and risk, and the relationship between the rate of fuel consumption and mileage of the analysis of the implementation of the mileage, fuel consumption will be reduced which have a positive effect on environment. In addition to the empirical analysis, this paper use mathematical analysis method to establish the static model of driving mileage behavior effect: general high mileage drivers reduce mileage, low mileage drivers increase mileage. But due to the lack of domestic vehicle mileage, the selected data are foreign, targeted can not so strong, so the strategy can't specific to each province, China in the following area, hoping to get further study on the improvement of technology in the future.

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.63

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