农户农业生产经营决策行为研究

发布时间：2018-04-09 16:12

本文选题：农业保险　切入点：农户　出处：《中国农业科学院》2014年博士后论文

【摘要】：作为农业生产的微观主体,农户的生产经营决策行为不仅直接影响到农户资源配置和收入水平,也关乎农业生产结构、农村产业结构和劳动力就业结构,影响农业和农村的发展。本报告考察农户的农业生产经营决策行为,由2部分构成：第一部分主要考察农业保险对农户生产经营决策的影响。首先考察了我国生猪保险和烟草保险试点情况,并基于实地调研数据资料,分析了农户对农业保险的认知、购买意愿及其影响因素,然后提出了农业保险影响农户生产决策行为的内在机理和理论框架。在此基础上构建风险条件下农户生产决策的实证模型,并模拟分析不同农业保险费率和不同保险产品对农户生产要素投入水平、预期收益以及风险水平的影响,探究保险合约及政府补贴措施对农户农业生产决策行为影响的内在机理,以及农业保险的实施效果和潜在影响,并最后从政府、保险机构、农业企业和农户4个层面提出有针对性的对策建议和启示。主要结论如下：第一,保险产品供给不足,现有保费水平和保障水平低。第二,保险供需主体矛盾较为突出,交易成本高。第三,农业保险会影响农户的预期收益,因此农户会通过改变劳动力在农业与非农业两部门的配置来改善其效用水平,并进而影响农户土地、资金等要素使用的密集度水平,影响生产项目和规模的选择,并最终体现为农业收益和非农收益。第四,农业保险影响资源配置的效果因产品组合而不同。在改善农户进行农业生产预期效用水平方面,保险费率相同的情况下,高保障水平要比低保障水平保效果明显,因此低保费高保障的保险产品对农户资源配置的影响程度最大。第二部分,考察农户粮食储备决策行为。首先基于山东农户调研数据资料,分析农户粮食储备的基本情况,并重点考察农户对科学技术处理技术的采用意愿及其影响因素；然后区分不同户主年龄、受教育水平、家庭人口、家庭收入和耕地面积,对农户储粮数量进行比较分析,并采用线性回归模型分析影响农户粮食储备数量的影响因素。主要结论和启示为：第一,农户近三年来粮食储量稳定,储存小麦为满足口粮之需,存量约为家庭9个月用量,储存玉米主要为饲料之用,能满足6个月用量；主要储粮方式是袋装和缸装,损耗来源于鼠害、虫害和霉菌；小麦的平均损失率高于玉米,储粮效果有待提高。第二,科学储粮技术采用率低,主要原因是当地没有推广,大多数农民是潜在用户；已经采用该技术的农户减损效果显著,小麦和玉米年均减损30公斤左右,农户对科学储粮技术认可度高,但期望政府给予技术采用补贴。第三,非农就业机会多、家庭收入水平高的农户倾向于储备更少的粮食,而距离集贸市场距离越远,农户储粮越多,因此当地的经济发展水平影响农户粮食储备。第四,农村信贷服务影响到农户科学储粮技术的采用和粮食储备数量,因此应当将科学储粮技术服务体系与农村信贷、农业信息服务等农业(农村)服务体系进行有效衔接。
[Abstract]:As the microcosmic main body of agricultural production, production and management decision-making behavior of farmers not only directly affect farmers' resource allocation and income level, but also for the agricultural production structure, employment structure of rural industrial structure and labor force, influence of agriculture and rural development. This report examines farmers' agricultural production and management decision-making, consists of 2 parts:
The first part mainly inspects the effect of agricultural insurance on Farmers' production and management decision-making. Firstly inspects the pig insurance and tobacco insurance in China, and based on the survey data, analysis of the farmers' cognition of agricultural insurance, purchase intention and its influencing factors, and then puts forward the mechanism and theoretical framework of the agricultural insurance effect of farmers' production and decision-making behavior the empirical model based on risk under the condition of farmers production decision, simulation and analysis of different agricultural insurance rates and different insurance products on Farmers' production factors input level, expected return and risk level, explore the inherent mechanism of the effect of insurance contracts and government subsidies to farmers' agricultural production decision behavior, and implementation effect the agricultural insurance and the potential impact, and finally from the government, insurance agencies, 4 levels of agricultural enterprises and farmers put forward needle The main conclusions are as follows:
First, insufficient supply of insurance products, the existing premium level and low level of protection. In second, the main contradiction between supply and demand of insurance is more prominent, the high transaction costs. Third, agricultural insurance will affect farmers' expected return, so farmers will improve the level of utility by changing the labor force in agriculture and non agriculture two door configuration, and then influence the use of land, capital and other factors of the intensive level, affecting production projects and the scale of choice, and the ultimate expression of agricultural income and non-agricultural income. Fourth, the agricultural insurance effect of resource allocation for different products. The combination of agricultural production level of expected utility in improving farmers insurance rates under the same high the level of protection than the low security level protection effect is obvious, so the influence of low premium of insurance products on Farmers' resource allocation.
The second part inspects farmers grain reserve decision-making behavior. Based on the survey data of farmers in Shandong, the basic situation of the farmers' grain reserves, and focus on farmers on science and technology processing technology adoption intention and its influencing factors; then distinguish between different education level, household age, family population, family income and cultivated land area, comparative analysis the number of grain farmers, and regression model to analyze the influence factors of the number of farmers' grain reserves by linear. The main conclusions and enlightenment:
First, farmers in nearly three years, grain reserves of wheat storage stability, in order to meet the needs of about stock rations, family 9 months storage amount, mainly for corn feed, can meet the 6 month amount; the main stored grain is bagged and cylinder, loss from rodents, pests and mildew; average loss the wheat was higher than maize, grain storage efficiency needs to be improved. Second, the low rate of scientific grain storage technology, the main reason is there is no local promotion, most of the farmers are potential users; have adopted the technology of farmers from effect, wheat and corn from average 30 kilograms, farmers recognized high scientific technology of grain storage, but expect the government give subsidies. By third, non farm employment opportunities, the level of family income high farmers tend to reserve less food, and from the market farther, more local farmers stored grain, so the economy The development level of Influencing Farmers' grain reserves. Fourth, rural credit services affect the amount of scientific grain farmers technology adoption and grain reserves, it should be scientific grain storage technology service system and rural credit, agricultural information service of agricultural (rural) service system of effective convergence.

【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：博士后
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.6;F842.66

【参考文献】