“全面二孩”政策对城镇职工医保统筹基金的影响:改善抑或恶化

发布时间：2018-04-25 13:30

  本文选题：“全面二孩”政策 + 职工医保　； 参考：《上海财经大学学报》2017年05期

【摘要】：现阶段,人口老龄化使得中国社会保险基金支付压力不断提高。为缓解老龄化程度并解决其带来的相关问题,中国出台"全面二孩"政策以替代原有的"单独二孩"政策。文章以城镇职工医保为例,运用精算模型定量评估"全面二孩"政策对统筹基金的影响,研究发现:(1)按照现行制度模式,如果继续执行"单独二孩"政策,统筹基金将于2040年出现累计赤字,2065年累计赤字约为62.44万亿元;(2)实施"全面二孩"政策后,在不同生育意愿下,统筹基金出现累计赤字的时点没有发生变化,但2065年累计赤字下降5.33%-40.73%;(3)进一步,如果自2022年起退休年龄每年延迟6个月直至达到65岁,在不同"全面二孩"生育意愿下,统筹基金出现累计赤字的时点将推迟7-25年,2065年累计赤字随之降低63.59%-98.99%。可见,"全面二孩"政策能降低城镇职工医保统筹基金的累计赤字,为促进其可持续发展,可与延迟退休年龄等政策同步实施。
[Abstract]:At this stage, the aging population makes China's social insurance fund payment pressure is increasing. To ease the ageing and solve the related problems, China has introduced a "comprehensive two-child" policy to replace the original "single two-child" policy. Taking medical insurance for urban workers as an example, this paper quantitatively evaluates the impact of the "comprehensive two-child" policy on the overall fund by using an actuarial model. It is found that: 1) according to the current system model, if the policy of "single two-child" continues to be implemented, The overall fund will have a cumulative deficit in 2040. In 2065, the cumulative deficit was about 62.44 trillion yuan.) after the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy, under different fertility intentions, the timing of the cumulative deficit of the overall plan fund has not changed. But in 2065, the cumulative deficit dropped 5.33% -40.73%) further. If the retirement age is delayed by six months a year since 2022 until reaching 65 years of age, under different "all-around two-child" wishes, The cumulative deficit will be delayed by 7-25 years, and the cumulative deficit in 2065 will be reduced by 63.59- 98.99. It can be seen that the "comprehensive two-child" policy can reduce the accumulated deficit of the medical insurance fund for urban staff and workers. In order to promote its sustainable development, it can be implemented simultaneously with the policy of delaying retirement age and so on.
【作者单位】： 中南财经政法大学公共管理学院;杭州电子科技大学会计学院;江苏大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金“生育政策调整对我国社会保险基金可持续性的影响评估及相关对策研究”(15XRK005)
【分类号】：C924.21;F842.684
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本文编号：1801542