城镇职工基本养老保险个人账户超额支出:测度与评价

发布时间：2018-04-27 12:15

本文选题：个人账户 + 遗产差　；参考：《社会保障评论》2017年02期

【摘要】：人口结构变化、企事业单位改制以及经济社会发展等会使得现收现付制基本养老保险模式产生支付危机,基金积累制模式被认为是替代现收现付制模式解决财务平衡问题的应对机制。本文从"遗产差"和"长寿差"视角切入,结合生命周期理论、保险精算理论及中国经济社会发展走势,对1997年至2015年间的城镇参保职工养老保险个人账户制度在未来可能发生的超额支出进行了测度,并对相关影响因子进行了敏感性分析。实证结果显示,自1997年到2015年,城镇职工基本养老保险个人账户支出结构中,"长寿差"占到总超额支出95%的比重,"遗产差"占比5%左右。敏感性分析结果显示,延迟退休年龄短期内不能对"长寿差"起到补益效应;提高缴费率或记账利率等对策会促进个人账户积累额的递增,而对缓解个人账户远期的支付能力无显著的实效性。基于此,本文提出了增加计发时间、减少单位时间内养老金支出额,以及积极探索养老金增值渠道、改善养老基金收益状况等建议。
[Abstract]:Changes in population structure, restructuring of enterprises and institutions, and economic and social development will result in a pay-as-you-go basic old-age insurance model with a payment crisis. The fund accumulation model is regarded as the coping mechanism to solve the financial balance problem instead of the pay-as-you-go model. From the perspective of "legacy difference" and "longevity difference", this paper combines the life cycle theory, the actuarial theory of insurance and the trend of China's economic and social development. This paper measures the possible excess expenditure in the future of the personal account system of urban insured workers' pension insurance from 1997 to 2015, and analyzes the sensitivity of the related influencing factors. The empirical results show that from 1997 to 2015, the "longevity difference" accounts for 95% of the total excess expenditure, and the "legacy difference" accounts for about 5% of the individual account expenditure structure of the basic old-age insurance in cities and towns. The results of sensitivity analysis showed that the delayed retirement age could not make up for the "longevity difference" in a short period of time, and that the increase in the contribution rate or interest rate would promote the increase of personal account accumulation. But to alleviate the individual account forward payment ability has no remarkable actual effect. Based on this, this paper puts forward some suggestions, such as increasing the time of calculation and issuing, reducing the amount of pension expenditure per unit time, and actively exploring the ways of increasing the value of pension, improving the income of pension fund, and so on.
【作者单位】：南京大学社会保障研究中心;南京财经大学社会保障研究院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“社会保障权益与收入分配公平问题研究”(16JJD840008) 江苏省社会科学基金项目“新型城镇化背景下江苏城乡社会保障制度整合策略和路径研究”(15SHB001) 国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“社会救助政策与再就业激活体系联动机制的构建研究”(15FGL014)
【分类号】：F842.67

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