保险业对“经济增长—城乡收入差距”非线性动力系统的影响

发布时间：2018-04-28 16:40

本文选题：经济增长 + 城乡收入差距　；参考：《当代经济科学》2015年02期

【摘要】：本文运用2004—2013年季度数据建立经济增长与城乡收入差距的非线性动力系统模型,引入保险业发展与产寿险结构作为控制变量,较为全面、系统地研究和比较了该经济系统的不同控制方案。研究发现,我国经济增长与城乡收入差距存在长期均衡的非线性关系;寿险业发展会抑制经济增长,并扩大城乡收入差距,财险业发展可以促进经济增长,同时缩小城乡收入差距;如果扩大财险业相对于寿险业的规模,会缩小城乡收入差距,促进经济增长;引入稳定度的最优控制可以有效缩短控制时间,但也会产生较高控制力度与社会福利损失。通过比较不同控制措施和控制方案,本文建议通过控制产寿险结构可以在较短时间内以较低控制成本实现经济增长与城乡收入差距的控制目标。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a nonlinear dynamic system model of economic growth and urban-rural income gap is established by using the data from 2004 to 2013, and the structure of insurance development and life insurance is introduced as the control variable. The different control schemes of the economic system are studied and compared systematically. It is found that there is a long-term equilibrium nonlinear relationship between economic growth and income gap between urban and rural areas, and that the development of life insurance industry will restrain economic growth and widen the income gap between urban and rural areas, and the development of property insurance industry can promote economic growth. At the same time, the income gap between urban and rural areas will be narrowed; if the scale of property insurance industry is expanded relative to life insurance industry, the income gap between urban and rural areas will be narrowed, and economic growth will be promoted. The introduction of optimal control of stability can effectively shorten the control time. But it will also produce higher control and social welfare losses. By comparing different control measures and control schemes, this paper suggests that the control goal of economic growth and urban-rural income gap can be achieved in a relatively short period of time by controlling the structure of property and life insurance.
【作者单位】：南开大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“基于DSGE模型的保险业结构与经济增长关系的数量分析”(71103095) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(NKZXB1418)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F842;F124.7;F224

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