基于个人养老金财富和效用视角的延迟退休政策研究

发布时间：2018-05-03 10:36

本文选题：养老金财富 + 生命周期效用　；参考：《华东师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济社会的发展,人口老龄化问题日渐突出,养老金支出规模不断扩大,养老保险基金可持续运行面临巨大挑战。而我国现行退休年龄设定成型于上世纪50年代,这样的退休年龄显然已经无法适应当前的人口结构。所以,延迟退休作为完善我国养老保险制度的一项重要举措被逐步提上日程。然而,广大民众却对延迟退休政策的反对声不断,不仅因为延迟退休减少了个人的闲暇时间,而且认为个人财富水平会因此降低。基于此,本文针对延迟退休政策对个人福利水平的影响,研究养老金制度对个人的内生激励作用,不仅从财富视角模拟了个人养老金财富的变化,也从效用分析维度衡量了延迟退休政策对生命周期效用的影响,借助数值模拟的方式定量阐述政策实施对个人福利水平的影响,从而为延迟退休政策的设置提供合理建议。本文首先对国内外关于延迟退休的研究进行了综述,提出基于个人财富及效用视角研究的理论意义。接着梳理了我国退休制度的历史沿革及发展现状,发现现行退休制度存在的问题,需要进行改革才能保证养老保险基金的可持续性。然而,退休年龄的调整会影响个人福利水平,所以为了探究养老保险制度对个人的内生激励作用,通过构建个人养老金财富模型和生命周期效用模型,模拟延迟退休政策前后个人福利水平的变动,并对参数进行敏感性分析以揭示各类因素对个人福利的影响,最终得出:工资增长率、投资收益率、预期寿命、收入水平、养老金替代率对延迟退休有正向作用,养老金增长率、贴现率及闲暇偏好对延迟退休有负向作用;在效用视角下,65岁是较为合适的退休年龄,并且由于效用模型考虑了闲暇决策,所以得出的最优退休年龄早于养老金财富模型下的69岁的最优退休年龄。最后,提出政府应当通过养老金弹性领取制度,逐步取消法定退休年龄,并且根据行业及地区的差异补充制定柔性退休条款,同时健全养老金核算体系的动态调整机制,密切关注养老金替代率及个人收入水平等重大影响因素。
[Abstract]:With the development of our country's economy and society, the problem of aging population is becoming more and more prominent, the scale of pension expenditure is expanding constantly, and the sustainable operation of pension insurance fund is facing a great challenge. However, the current retirement age was set in the 1950s in China, which is obviously unable to adapt to the current population structure. Therefore, the delay of retirement as an important measure to improve the pension insurance system has been gradually put on the agenda. However, there is widespread public opposition to delayed retirement, not only because it reduces the amount of personal leisure time, but also because it reduces the level of personal wealth. Based on this, this paper aims at the effect of delayed retirement policy on the level of individual welfare, studies the endogenous incentive effect of pension system on individuals, not only simulates the change of individual pension wealth from the perspective of wealth. The impact of delayed retirement policy on life cycle utility is also measured from the perspective of utility analysis, and the impact of policy implementation on individual welfare level is quantitatively expounded by means of numerical simulation, thus providing reasonable advice for setting up delayed retirement policy. This paper first summarizes the research on delayed retirement at home and abroad, and puts forward the theoretical significance of the research based on the perspective of personal wealth and utility. Then combing the history and development of China's retirement system, we find that the existing problems of the current retirement system need to be reformed to ensure the sustainability of pension insurance funds. However, the adjustment of retirement age will affect the level of individual welfare, so in order to explore the endogenous incentive role of the pension insurance system to individuals, through the construction of personal pension wealth model and life cycle utility model, After simulating the changes of individual welfare level before and after the delayed retirement policy, and analyzing the sensitivity of the parameters to reveal the influence of various factors on individual welfare, the paper concludes that: salary growth rate, investment return rate, life expectancy, income level, etc. Pension replacement rate has positive effect on delayed retirement, pension growth rate, discount rate and leisure preference have negative effect on delayed retirement. Because the utility model takes leisure decision into account, the optimal retirement age is earlier than the optimal retirement age of 69 years under the pension wealth model. Finally, it is proposed that the government should gradually abolish the statutory retirement age through the flexible pension payment system, and make flexible retirement clauses according to the industry and regional differences, and improve the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the pension accounting system. Pay close attention to pension replacement rate and personal income level and other major factors.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F249.2;F842.67

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