新型农村社会养老保险对农村居民消费的乘数效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 12:44

本文选题：农村养老保险 + 农村居民消费　；参考：《经济学家》2013年04期

【摘要】：新型农村社会养老保险制度肩负着解决农村居民养老后顾之忧、实现老有所养的政策目标,同时还承担着带动农村消费与扩大内需的战略任务。根据2011年截面数据消费模型实证分析结果,在其他条件不变时,农村养老保险基金支出平均每增加1亿元,当年可以拉动农村居民生活消费支出18亿元左右。同时,农村居民上一年度消费水平对当年消费产生正的影响,影响系数为1.2倍左右。因此,可以通过增加农村社会养老保险基金支出、加大宣传和制度建设形成农民持久老年收入增加预期、稳定农村消费形成合理消费习惯和消费预期等,减弱农民养老预防性储蓄,拉动农村消费与内需增长。
[Abstract]:The new rural social endowment insurance system shoulders the policy goal of solving the problems of rural residents after the old age, realizing the policy objectives of the old people, while taking on the strategic task of driving rural consumption and expanding domestic demand. According to the empirical analysis results of the 2011 cross section data consumption model, the expenditure of rural endowment insurance fund is flat when other conditions are unchanged. At the same time, the consumption expenditure of rural residents can be 1 billion 800 million yuan per increase of 100 million yuan per year. At the same time, the consumption level of rural residents in the last year has a positive impact on the consumption of the year, and the influence coefficient is about 1.2 times. Therefore, the rural social endowment insurance fund can be increased by increasing the rural social endowment insurance fund and increasing the publicity and system construction to form a farmer lasting old age. The annual income increase is expected to stabilize rural consumption and form reasonable consumption habits and consumption expectations, reducing the farmers' old-age Preventive Savings and stimulating rural consumption and domestic demand growth.

【作者单位】：中共大连市委党校;辽宁大学人口研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目“城乡社会保障体系协调发展研究”(项目编号:11&ZD014);国家社会科学基金重大招标项目“完善农村养老保险体系和提高社会保障水平研究”(项目编号:09JD023)
【分类号】：F323.8;F842.6;F224

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