中国养老保险制度对城镇居民消费行为影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 19:23

本文选题：缓冲储备储蓄 + 消费水平　；参考：《山西财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，我国城镇居民消费率一路下滑，而储蓄率却始终居高不下，本文以城镇居民消费支出为出发点展开研究。本文基于缓冲储备储蓄理论，引入中国家庭金融调查数据（以下简称CFPS）中22个省份2010年截面数据，通过对养老金“多轨制”进行量化，在考虑收入不确定性的前提下，建立TOBIT模型作实证分析，试图在一定程度上对该现象加以解释。实证结果显示，我国尚待完善的养老保险制度可以在一定程度上解释居民消费不足现象，主要体现在两个方面：①我国养老保险“多轨制”的存在；②我国养老金替代率普遍低。具体而言：第一，养老金“多轨制”的存在显著影响居民消费行为。企业人员相比机关事业单位人员而言，消费支出更加谨慎，预防性储蓄动机更加强烈。这是由于机关事业单位人员比企业人员在退休后可享受到更为优越的养老保险制度，生活收支更为稳定。第二，拥有较高养老金收入的居民比拥有较低养老金收入的居民有更强的消费倾向。养老金收入高的家庭，对未来收支的不确定性较小，更有意愿进行消费支出。不同类别的消费支出受到我国养老金制度的影响是不同的。居民“食住行用”方面的消费支出带有一定的必需品性质，收入弹性低；中国居民考虑“面子”问题，，衣着支出的收入弹性较高，且完善的养老保险制度显著激励居民增加衣着消费支出；对于具有一定程度的奢侈品性质的支出，诸如保健支出和旅游探亲支出等，居民收入弹性大于1，完善的养老保险制度对该类消费支出的增加有显著影响；目前我国居民文化娱乐支出兼顾必需性和奢侈性，收入弹性相对较高，也会因为养老保险制度的合理和完善而增加支出。实证结果为近年来我国城镇居民消费率持续下滑提供了一个微观层面的解释：我国不甚完善的养老保险制度使得城镇居民为了预防未来收支的不确定性，降低当期消费水平，提高预防性储蓄水平。一方面，不同职业类型的居民享有不同等级的养老金制度。公务员或事业单位人员比企业人员在退休后享有更为稳定和高比例于工资的养老保险金，因此，消费行为不若企业人员般谨慎。另一方面，我国养老保险制度的覆盖面仍然较低，退休后没有生活保障的居民自然会在中壮年时期增加储蓄，以备未来之需。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the consumption rate of urban residents in our country has been declining all the time, but the saving rate has always remained high. This paper takes the consumption expenditure of urban residents as the starting point to carry out the research. Based on the theory of buffer reserve savings, this paper introduces the 2010 cross-section data of 22 provinces in the Chinese Household Financial Survey (CFPSs), and quantifies the "multi-track" pension system, taking into account the income uncertainty. The TOBIT model is established to analyze the phenomenon in order to explain the phenomenon to some extent. The empirical results show that the pension insurance system still to be perfected in China can explain the phenomenon of insufficient consumption to some extent, mainly in two aspects: 1 the existence of "multi-track system" of China's old-age insurance; China's pension replacement rate is generally low. To be specific: first, the existence of multi-track pension system significantly affects residents' consumption behavior. Enterprise personnel than the personnel of institutions, consumer spending is more cautious, precautionary savings motivation is more intense. This is because personnel of Orgnaization institution unit can enjoy more superior endowment insurance system after retiring, living income and expenditure is more stable. Second, residents with higher pension income have a stronger propensity to spend than those with lower pension income. Families with high pension incomes have less uncertainty about future payments and are more willing to spend. Different categories of consumer spending are influenced by China's pension system. Residents' consumption expenditure on "food, shelter and use" is of a certain nature of necessity and income elasticity is low; Chinese residents consider the issue of "face", and the income elasticity of clothing expenditure is relatively high. Moreover, the perfect pension insurance system significantly encourages the residents to increase the expenditure on clothing, and for the expenditure of luxury goods to a certain extent, such as the expenditure on health care and travel to visit relatives, etc. The income elasticity of the residents is greater than 1, and the perfect pension insurance system has a significant effect on the increase of this kind of consumption expenditure. At present, the residents' cultural and entertainment expenditure in our country takes into account the necessity and luxury, and the income elasticity is relatively high. Also can because endowment insurance system is reasonable and perfect and increase expenditure. The empirical results provide a microcosmic explanation for the continuous decline in the consumption rate of urban residents in recent years: the imperfect pension insurance system makes the urban residents reduce the current consumption level in order to prevent the uncertainty of future income and expenditure. Raise the level of precautionary savings. On the one hand, different occupational types of residents enjoy different levels of pension system. Civil servants or institutions have a more stable and higher proportion of pension insurance after retirement than corporate personnel, therefore, consumer behavior is not as cautious as corporate personnel. On the other hand, the coverage of the old-age insurance system in China is still relatively low, and the residents who do not have life security after retirement will naturally increase their savings in the middle-aged and middle-aged for the future.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.67;F126.1

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