澄清对养老金替代率的误解

发布时间：2018-05-07 07:30

本文选题：养老保险 + 个人替代率　；参考：《统计研究》2013年11期

【摘要】：养老金替代率是养老金与工资的比例,是国际上通用的衡量养老金待遇水平的指标,常用于对制度待遇充足性的评估和国际比较研究。在我国,相关文献和实践中常用平均替代率衡量替代率的平均水平,基本观点是:我国养老金替代率持续降低,已低于国际警戒水平和制度设定的目标替代水平,从而建议持续提高养老金待遇。本文对养老金替代率的内涵、口径和计算方法做了系统梳理和对比分析,通过随机模拟,给出了在我国社会养老保险下,不同类型人群替代率的分布以及替代率高于临界值的概率,澄清了当前对平均替代率存在的误解,运用因素分解法探讨了平均替代率的影响因素,分析了平均替代率在度量替代率平均水平时存在的偏差,指出中位替代率是更合适的替代率平均水平度量指标。
[Abstract]:The replacement rate of pension is the ratio of pension to wage, which is an international index to measure the level of pension treatment. It is often used to evaluate the adequacy of institutional treatment and to study international comparison. In China, the average replacement rate commonly used in relevant literature and practice measures the average level of substitution rate. The basic point of view is that the replacement rate of pension in China continues to decrease, which is lower than the international alert level and the target substitution level set by the system. Thus, it is recommended that pension benefits be raised continuously. In this paper, the connotation, caliber and calculation method of pension replacement rate are systematically combed and compared and analyzed. The distribution of the substitution rate and the probability that the substitution rate is higher than the critical value of different population groups clarifies the misunderstanding about the average substitution rate at present, and discusses the influence factors of the average substitution rate by factor decomposition method. The deviation of the average substitution rate in measuring the average substitution rate level is analyzed, and it is pointed out that the median substitution rate is a more suitable metric for the average substitution rate level.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心;中国人民大学风险管理与精算中心;中国人民大学统计学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(10JJD790037) 教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(10YJA910008) 国家自然科学基金项目(71173230)的资助
【分类号】：F224;F842.6

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