保险消费对我国经济增长作用的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-12 12:19

本文选题：保险消费 + 经济增长　；参考：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济改革的深入,我国对经济增长的倚重开始发生变化,扩大国内消费需求,促进经济增长由投资向消费转移成为一个重要的诉求。消费是经济活动和发展的基本内容和目的,因此在经济发展和研究中占有至关重要的地位。近年来,消费金融在国内快速发展,各种金融资产与服务得到极大的丰富。保险消费作为一种金融消费方式,在我国居民的家庭资产配置中扮演着越来越重要的角色。当前我国的保险业快速发展,居民们的保险消费需求明显增加,至2012年止,全年我国保险公司原保费收入达到15488亿元,相比上年增长8.0%,保险密度和保险深度也体现出上升有趋势。与此同时,我国经济也保持良好的增长势头,到2012年止,我国的国内生产总值已经达到519322亿元,比上年增长7.8%,虽然较以往有所回落,但仍处于较高发展水平,远远高于世界其它国家或地区。保险消费与经济增长都处于快速发展的最佳时期,我国保险消费对经济的拉动作用值得关注。在大量的研究金融业与经济增长的文献中,人们比较关注银行,证券与经济增长的相互作用,往往忽视了保险业在经济增长中的促进作用。然而,一方面由于保险业与其它金融服务业一样具备融通资金,优化资源配置的功能,另一方面保险还具备其它金融行业不具备的风险保障和社会管理的功能。因而对保险业与经济增长关系的研究也是非常有必要的。国内学者在对保险业与经济增长关系的研究,大都还是粗略式将保险作为一个整体的变量,而没有充分考虑到保险消费的结构上的差异,即没有考虑人身保险消费与财产保险消费在经济促进作用的不同。这样的研究容易忽视我国当前保险消费对经济增长的作用的差别,从而得出不正确的结论。在我国当前保险业迅速发展但仍处于初级发展水平的大背景下,有必要认真考察财产保险消费与人身保险消费的差异性。从我国保险业的整体水平来看,保险的覆盖率还很低,这主要表现在保险深度与保险密度等指标值较小,保险消费水平在不同的区域间发展极不平衡。另一个方面则表现在居民的保险消费结构很不合理,即有财产保险消费与人身保险消费的不均衡,也有人身保险内部的投资型保险与保障型保险的失衡、人寿保险与健康意外险的失衡,这种失衡充分反映了我国保险消费的落后。对保险消费对经济增长效应的研究具有理论与现实的意义。在理论上从消费的角度出发来研究保险与经济增长的关系的文献还不多,这样的研究有利于促进学科间的整合。特别是在国内对金融发展对其关系的清楚梳理,能够认识到保险消费在经济增长的理论价值。保险消费作为现代居民生活消费的一部分,它一方面表现出一般消费的相似点,另一方面又表现出异于一般消费的特点。有关消费促进经济增长的研究已经导出不穷,不过保险消费由于具有其独特特征,并不能简单地套用以往的结论。保险消费对于保险业发展具有重要的作用,保险消费需求的旺盛与否以及保险消费结构的变化都会影响到整个保险业的发展。在本文的文献综述部分,详细介绍了当前国际国内对保险发展与经济增长关系研究的权威文献,通过认真阅读这些研究,在介绍的同时,本文还做了比较全面的评析,对一些研究中的不足提出了自己的看法,总得来说也比较清楚了梳理了相关方面的研究,并对未来的研究方向做出了自己的预判接下来的部分,本文从消费的角度出发,首先对保险消费进行了重新定义,本文认为,保险是一种服务型消费品,保险消费实质上是一种服务型消费,是人们为了满足保险需求而购买或使用保险产品或保险服务的消费过程。这样的一种新定义,不但规定了保险消费的特殊性即是为了保险需求,也更准确的表明了保险消费的主体。这个定义是本文根据以往的研究以及自己的总结归纳而成,与以前研究中的“保险消费是消费者为了保障生命财产安全,满足其安全需求的一种消费”相比,在意思的表达上更加准确,在涉及了内容方面更加全面。本文还对保险消费与一般消费进行了详细的对比。即提及了两者的联系,这两者相互影响,共同作用构成我国居民日常消费。对保险消费的主体、对象、实质、特征做了入微的阐述,并且重点区别了保险消费与一般消费,相对一般消费来说,保险消费具有消费对象的特殊性、消费结果的不确定性、消费过程的互助性、双向选择性等特点,通过这些分析,可以对保险消费有一个比较清晰的认识。在保险消费与经济增长关系的这一部分,首先本文分析了经济发展促进保险消费的增加主要是通过以下几个原因来实现：一是经济发展不断产生新的风险,风险的变化与增加,引起人们保险消费需求的变化与增加；二是收入或财富增加引起保险消费需求变化。三是经济发展导致人们消费习惯的变化、以及寿命的延长都会增加人们对保险消费的需求。紧接而来的是,本文在保险消费对经济增长效应的分析。在这里本文主要通过三个功能以及四个渠道来对其分析。三个功能指的是经济损失补偿功能、社会管理功能,以及保险消费促进储蓄向投资转化的功能。很多研究不太重视保险的社会管理功能,本文在这里对保险的社会管理功能如何促进经济发展做了简单的分析。四个渠道就是指保险消费通过消费渠道、资金融通渠道、出口渠道以及技术渠道四方面来发挥其经济的促进作用。本文在这里还专门提到了财产保险消费与人身保险消费对经济增长的作用机制的差别：人身保险消费主要通过其储蓄功能来实现,而财产保险则是通过损失补偿的机理促进经济的增长。考察到两者作用机制的不同,可以预期两者对经济产生的影响也是不一样的。在实证部分,本文对保险消费促进经济增长的作用进行了较为详细与全面的分析,充分考虑到财产保险消费与人身保险消费对经济增长作用机制的差异。文中采用1986-2011年的数据,通过建立时间序列对保险消费与经济增长进行经验分析,在分析的过程中,同时将反映技术的变量高中升学率、反映资本存量的人均资本。实证结果显示,财产保险消费对我国经济增长有比较显著的促进作用,而人身保险消费则表现出负的作用。本文对这个回归结果进行了充分的解释,同时对与以往研究结论上的差异也给出了合理的理由。本文认为财产保险之所表现出比较显著的促进作用在于其风险保障功能的发挥与经济的直接关联性比较强。而人身保险消费表现出抑制作用,其原因则比较复杂：其一在于我国人身保险的快速增长有一定的泡沫性,其二可能是我国监管对保险资金的运用限制过于严格,造成保险资金的运用渠道狭窄,运用效率不高。除此之外,当前,我国人身保险消费比较热衷于投资型的产品,而不是保障型的产品,这样形成了保险业与银行、证券等行业的竞争关系而不是互补格局,这样金融协同作用无法得到有效发挥,也可能会影响经济的增长。在本文的末尾,根据财产保险与人身保险的差异,以及在前文的实证结果,最后提出了几点针对性很强的解决思路与建议。本文可能的创新之处主要有以下几点：一、论文选题有较强的现实性。保险并非一个新生物,对保险与经济增长关系的研究也有不少,但从消费角度来研究保险与经济增长关系的文献还很少。在当前力促经济增长由投资向消费方向转变的大背景下,消费金融风生水起,保险消费作为其中一个部分,其对经济的作用在当前研究中还没有受到重视,大部分研究都集中在银行与证券行业。再者,我国目前实行的金融分业经营与监管,对保险消费研究的重视有可能会更那看清银行、证券、保险三大金融板块在经济增长拼图上的作用,掌握其特点,更好地促进金融协同作用的发生。二、本文在研究角度上,选取的是保险消费,而不是整个保险行业。首先,保险消费与居民的日常生活密切相关,保险消费需求的旺盛与否以及消费需求结构的变化都会反映到保险业的发展当中去,而人们的保险消费活动实际上就是对保险产品与服务的消费上,在实证分析时,变量的选取将会变得容易。许多关于保险业与经济增长关系的研究中,通常选取保费或保险深度与经济变量做实证分析,用保费收入或保险深度来代替保险业的发展水平实际上是不太科学的,有可能导致结论的偏差。保险消费直接影响到保险业的发展,从消费的角度出发,能够将我们的目光聚焦到消费者身上,更多的关注消费者的保险需求,而不是像现在这样先创造一个保险产品出来,再说服他们接受。由供给导向需求导向转变,能够更好的促进保险业的优质发展。三、本文在研究中考虑了财产保险与人身保险的差异,而不同于以往研究中的不做区分。考虑到人身保险消费更多的是通过其储蓄功能来促进经济发展,而财产保险消费则因其损失补偿功能对经济产生正向作用。在实证当中,本文将其区分,并且得出的结论很好的体现了我国当前保险消费的现状。在国内,像这样区分两者差异的研究还不多。本文研究的不足：在本文的研究中,本文选取的数据范围为1986-2011年,数据样本量可能会影响到实证回归的结果,人身保险消费在近些年来增幅很大,远远高于早些年的幅度,这种爆发式的人身保险需求的增加,有可能并没有真实的反应经济增长,可能会导致结果出现一定的偏差。本文在研究过程中,没有将银行变量、证券变量纳入其中,联合考察金融变量对经济增长的影响,这可能会导致夸大财产保险对经济增长的促进作用。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of China's economic reform, our country's reliance on economic growth has begun to change, expanding domestic consumption demand and promoting the transfer of economic growth from investment to consumption has become an important appeal. Consumption is the basic content and purpose of economic activities and development, so it occupies a vital position in the economic development and research. In recent years, consumer finance has developed rapidly in China, and all kinds of financial assets and services have been greatly enriched. As a way of financial consumption, insurance consumption has played an increasingly important role in the allocation of household assets in our country. The current insurance industry in China has developed rapidly, and the demand for insurance consumption of the people is obviously increased to the end of 2012. In the whole year, the original premium income of our insurance company reached 15488 billion yuan, which was up 8% compared with the previous year. The insurance density and insurance depth also showed an upward trend. At the same time, China's economy also maintained a good momentum of growth. By the end of 2012, China's gross domestic product has reached 519322 billion yuan, up 7.8% over the previous year, although it has been more than the previous year. It is still at a high level of development, far higher than the other countries or regions in the world. Both the insurance consumption and economic growth are at the best period of rapid development, and the effect of China's insurance consumption on the economy is worth paying attention to.
In a large number of literature on financial and economic growth, people are more concerned about the interaction of banks, securities and economic growth, often ignoring the role of the insurance industry in economic growth. On the one hand, on the one hand, the insurance industry has the same financing as other financial services, the function of optimizing the allocation of resources, and the other, on the other hand. Risk also has the functions of risk protection and social management that other financial industries do not have. Therefore, it is also necessary to study the relationship between the insurance industry and economic growth.
In the study of the relationship between the insurance industry and the economic growth, the domestic scholars mostly take the insurance as a whole variable, but not fully consider the difference in the structure of the insurance consumption, that is, it does not consider the difference between the personal insurance consumption and the property insurance consumption in the economic promotion. In the background of the rapid development of insurance industry but still at the level of primary development, it is necessary to carefully examine the difference between the consumption of property insurance and the consumption of personal insurance. This is mainly manifested in small insurance depth and insurance density, and the development of insurance consumption is extremely uneven among different regions. The other is that the insurance consumption structure of the residents is very unreasonable, that is, the imbalance between the consumption of property insurance and the personal insurance consumption, and the investment insurance and guarantee within the personal insurance. The imbalance of type insurance and the imbalance between life insurance and health accident insurance fully reflect the backwardness of China's insurance consumption.
The research on the effect of insurance consumption on economic growth is of theoretical and practical significance. In theory, there are few literature on the relationship between insurance and economic growth from the angle of consumption. This kind of research will help to promote the integration of the subjects. Insurance consumption is the theoretical value of economic growth. As part of the living consumption of modern residents, insurance consumption shows the similarity of general consumption on the one hand, and on the other hand it is different from the characteristics of general consumption. The research on consumption promoting economic growth has been exported, but the insurance consumption has its unique characteristics, It is not easy to apply the previous conclusions. Insurance consumption plays an important role in the development of the insurance industry. The exuberant consumption of the insurance consumption and the change of the insurance consumption structure will affect the development of the whole insurance industry.
In the literature review part of this paper, it introduces the authoritative literature on the study of the relationship between insurance development and economic growth in detail. Through careful reading of these studies, the article has also made a more comprehensive evaluation, and put forward his own views on some of the deficiencies in the study, and it is also clear and clear. The related research is done, and the future research direction is predicted.
The following part, from the point of view of consumption, this article first redefines the insurance consumption. In this paper, it is considered that insurance is a kind of service-oriented consumer goods, and the insurance consumption is essentially a kind of service type consumption. It is a new consumption process for people to buy or use insurance products or insurance services in order to meet the needs of insurance. The definition not only stipulates that the particularity of insurance consumption is for insurance demand, but also more accurately shows the main body of insurance consumption. This definition is based on the previous research and the summary of its own, and the "insurance consumption" in the previous study is to ensure the safety of life and property to meet the safety needs of the consumer. Compared with the content, this article also makes a detailed comparison between the insurance consumption and the general consumption. It also refers to the relationship between the two. The two influences each other. The common effect constitutes the daily consumption of the residents in our country. The subject, object, substance, and characteristics of the insurance consumption are done. In this paper, the insurance consumption and general consumption are distinguished, and relative to the general consumption, the insurance consumption is characterized by the particularity of the consumption object, the uncertainty of the consumption result, the mutual assistance of the consumption process and the two-way selectivity. Through these analyses, we can have a clearer understanding of the insurance consumption.
In this part of the relationship between insurance consumption and economic growth, first of all, this paper analyses that the increase of economic development and insurance consumption is realized mainly through the following reasons: first, the economic development has new risks, the change and increase of the risk, the change and increase of the consumption demand of the people; two, income or wealth. The increase in the demand for insurance consumption changes. Three is that economic development leads to changes in people's consumption habits, and the prolongation of life will increase the demand for insurance consumption. The following is the analysis of the effect of insurance consumption on economic growth. Here, this paper mainly analyzes it through three functions and four channels. The three function refers to the function of compensation for economic loss, the function of social management, and the function of the insurance consumption to promote the conversion of savings to investment. Many studies do not pay much attention to the social management function of insurance. Here, this paper makes a simple analysis of how the social management function of insurance promotes economic development. The four channel is the consumption of insurance. In this paper, the difference between property insurance consumption and personal insurance consumption on economic growth is also specifically mentioned in the four aspects of consumption channels, financing channels, export channels and technical channels. Through the mechanism of loss compensation to promote economic growth, it can be expected that the two will have different effects on the economy.
In the empirical part, this paper makes a more detailed and comprehensive analysis on the role of insurance consumption to promote economic growth, and fully considers the difference between property insurance consumption and personal insurance consumption on the mechanism of economic growth. In this paper, the experience of insurance consumption and economic growth is divided by setting up a time series of 1986-2011 years data. In the process of analysis, it will reflect the high school rate of high school and the per capita capital of capital stock. The empirical results show that the property insurance consumption has a significant role in promoting the economic growth of our country, while the personal insurance consumption shows a negative effect. It also gives a reasonable reason for the difference from the previous research conclusions. This paper holds that the property insurance has a more significant role in promoting its risk protection function and its direct relationship with the economy. The rapid growth of insurance has a certain bubble, and the other may be that the application of insurance funds is too restrictive in China's supervision, resulting in the narrow use of insurance funds and low utilization efficiency. In addition, at present, China's personal insurance consumption is more keen on investment type products than the guarantee type products, thus forming insurance. The competitive relationship between industry and banks, securities and other industries is not a complementary pattern, so that financial synergy can not be brought into full play, and it may also affect economic growth.
At the end of this article, according to the difference between property insurance and personal insurance, and the empirical results in the previous article, some ideas and suggestions are put forward in the end.
The possible innovations of this paper are as follows:
First, the thesis has a strong reality. Insurance is not a new creature, and there are many studies on the relationship between insurance and economic growth. However, there are few literature on the relationship between insurance and economic growth from the angle of consumption. As a part of it, its role in the economy has not been paid much attention to in the current research. Most of the research is concentrated in the bank and the securities industry. Furthermore, the current financial division management and supervision in China, the attention to the research of the insurance consumption may be more likely to see the three major financial sectors of the bank, securities and insurance. The role of long puzzle plays a better role in promoting the role of financial synergy.
Two, in this paper, we choose the insurance consumption, not the whole insurance industry. First, the insurance consumption is closely related to the daily life of the residents, the exuberant consumption demand and the change of the consumption demand structure will all reflect the development of the insurance industry, and the people's insurance consumption activity is actually the protection of the insurance. In the case of empirical analysis, the selection of variables will become easier in the case of the consumption of insurance products and services. In the study of the relationship between insurance and economic growth, the empirical analysis of premium or insurance depth and economic variables is usually selected. In fact, it is not scientific to use premium income or insurance depth to replace the development level of insurance industry. It may lead to the deviation of the conclusion. The insurance consumption directly affects the development of the insurance industry. From the point of view of consumption, we can focus our attention on the consumer, pay more attention to the consumer's insurance demand, rather than create an insurance product like it now, and take them to accept. Change, can better promote the premium development of the insurance industry.
Three, in this study, the difference between property insurance and personal insurance is considered, but it is different from the previous study. Considering that the personal insurance consumption is more to promote economic development through its savings function, and the property insurance consumption has a positive effect on the economy because of its loss compensation function. The conclusion drawn from the conclusion shows the current situation of insurance consumption in China.
The shortcomings of this paper are as follows:
In this study, the range of data selected in this paper is 1986-2011 years, and the data sample size may affect the results of empirical regression. Personal insurance consumption has increased greatly in recent years, far higher than that in earlier years. This explosion type of personal insurance demand is likely to have no real response to economic growth. There is a certain deviation in the result.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842;F124.1

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