人口老龄化背景下河南省城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支平衡问题研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 19:53

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 基本养老保险　；参考：《河南大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：自20世纪90年代，我国进入人口老龄化社会以来，随着经济社会的快速发展，老年人口呈现快速增长趋势，这给我国基本养老保险制度带来了严峻的冲击和挑战。伴随着人口老龄化的发展越演越烈，如何确保未来人口老龄化高峰期到来时基本养老保险基金的收支平衡，，成为各方越来越关注和探讨的问题。本文在人口老龄化的大背景下，以河南省基本养老保险基金收支平衡为研究对象，首先阐述了基本养老保险基金的相关概念，以及现收现付制、完全积累制这两种筹资模式下养老保险基金收支平衡的理论基础，并分别分析了人口老龄化对这两种制度的影响。作者结合搜集到的数据资料并参考其他学者的研究成果，分析了河南省人口老龄化的现状、特征以及发展趋势，总结出未来因人口老龄化的发展可能会给养老保险制度带来的冲击。继而通过因素分析法，针对河南省基本养老保险基金收支平衡的现状建立养老保险基金收支测算模型，对河南省未来30年的基本养老保险基金进行分析预测。测算结果显示，河南省在2027年出现基本养老保险基金收不抵支，随后仅用了7年的时间就把前期累积的基金结余消耗殆尽，在2033年出现养老保险基金收支结余赤字，而后赤字规模越来越大。在对测算结果做出分析后，为了避免在未来人口老龄化高峰期出现时河南省的基本养老保险基金赤字规模过大，本文有针对性的提出了一些实现基本养老保险基金收支平衡的对策和建议。首先通过调整基金收支预测模型的相关参数来实现，经分析，降低参保退休人口增长率、增加基本养老保险收缴率、提高参保在职职工的人口增长率是比较可行的提高基金收支平衡的对策；其次从完善基本养老保险制度方面分析实现基金收支平衡的措施，通过改善财政支出结构、加大财政对养老保险的投入，转移部分国有资产充实基本养老保险基金，积极探索基本养老保险基金的保值增值渠道这三方面解决基本养老险保险基金的收支平衡问题，是相对较容易实现的。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, our country has entered the aging society of population, with the rapid development of economy and society, the elderly population has shown a rapid growth trend, which has brought severe impact and challenge to the basic old-age insurance system of our country. With the increasing development of the aging population, how to ensure the balance of income and expenditure of the basic pension fund in the coming peak period of population aging has become more and more concerned and discussed by all parties. Under the background of aging population, this paper takes the balance of income and expenditure of the basic old-age insurance fund in Henan Province as the research object. Firstly, it expounds the related concepts of the basic pension insurance fund and the pay-as-you-go system. The theoretical basis of the balance of income and expenditure of the pension insurance fund under the two financing modes of the full accumulation system is discussed, and the influence of the aging population on the two systems is analyzed respectively. Based on the data collected and the research results of other scholars, the author analyzes the current situation, characteristics and development trend of population aging in Henan Province. Summed up the future development of aging population may bring impact on the pension insurance system. Based on the analysis of factors, this paper establishes a model to calculate the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund in Henan province, and analyzes and forecasts the basic pension insurance fund in the next 30 years. The results show that in 2027, the basic pension fund in Henan Province received no charge, and then spent only seven years to exhaust the fund balance accumulated in the preceding period. In 2033, there was a deficit in the balance of income and expenditure of the pension fund. Then the deficit grew larger and larger. After making an analysis of the results of the calculation, in order to avoid the excessive deficit of the basic old-age insurance fund in Henan Province during the peak period of population aging in the future, This paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to realize the balance of income and expenditure of basic pension insurance fund. First of all, by adjusting the relevant parameters of the fund income and expenditure forecasting model, through analysis, the rate of increase of the insured retired population and the collection rate of the basic pension insurance are reduced. It is feasible to improve the balance of income and expenditure of the fund by increasing the population growth rate of the employees. Secondly, the measures to achieve the balance of income and expenditure of the fund are analyzed from the aspect of perfecting the basic old-age insurance system, and the structure of the financial expenditure is improved. Increase the financial investment in pension insurance, transfer some state-owned assets to replenish the basic pension insurance fund, and actively explore the channels for maintaining and increasing the value of the basic pension insurance fund to solve the problem of the balance of income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund. Is relatively easy to implement.
【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.67

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