基于基金收支平衡的城镇职工基本养老金调整方案设计

发布时间：2018-05-18 01:02

本文选题：城镇职工基本养老保险 + 养老金调整　；参考：《统计与信息论坛》2016年06期

【摘要】：目前中国企业退休人员基本养老金的调整属于行政命令式的调整,其科学性和可持续性不足。以不低于物价变动率,同时分享工资增长率的一定比率为原则,设计出六种养老金调整方案,通过构建养老保险基金收支平衡精算模型,测算不同调整方案对养老保险基金短期和长期收支平衡的影响,结果发现:不同的养老金调整方案下养老保险基金短期和长期收支的缺口出现的时间不同,养老基金长期收支将会经历"生长期"、"衰退期"、"枯竭期"三个阶段;为了维持养老基金收支平衡,养老金调整方案的设计必须在三个时期实行实际工资增长率分享比例的动态调整。建议工资增长率的分享比例2015—2034年在100%~60%范围内由高到低浮动,2035—2046年在60%~40%的范围内由高到低浮动,2047年以后在40%以下浮动。
[Abstract]:At present, the adjustment of the basic pension of Chinese enterprise retirees belongs to the administrative imperative adjustment, which is not scientific and sustainable. Based on the principle of not lower price change rate and sharing a certain ratio of wage growth rate, six pension adjustment schemes are designed, and an actuarial model of pension fund balance is constructed. The effects of different adjustment schemes on the short-term and long-term balance of income and expenditure of pension funds are measured. The results show that the gap between short-term and long-term income and expenditure of pension funds appears at different times under different pension adjustment schemes. The long-term income and expenditure of pension funds will go through three stages: "growth period", "recession" and "depletion period"; in order to maintain the balance of income and expenditure of pension funds, The design of pension adjustment scheme must carry out dynamic adjustment of the share ratio of real wage growth rate in three periods. It is suggested that the share rate of wage growth rate in 2015-2034 should fluctuate from high to low in the range of 60 percent from 2035 to 2046, from high to low in the range of 60 percent after 2047 and below 40 percent after 2047.
【作者单位】：华中农业大学社会工作系;华中农业大学农村社会建设与管理研究中心;武汉大学社会保障研究中心;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目《机关事业单位养老保险制度改革动态跟踪和效果评估研究》(410500078) 中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目《新型农村社会养老保险基金收支平衡的可持续性研究》(2013T60748)
【分类号】：F842.67

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