制度因素调整下的职工基本养老保险基金收支研究

发布时间：2018-05-23 09:47

本文选题：养老保险基金 + 制度因素　；参考：《西南政法大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国城镇职工基本养老保险制度从20世纪80年代开始试行到90年代建立统账结合制度以来，取得了良好的发展。然而随着我国人口结构的变化，人口老龄化社会的到来对我国城镇职工基本养老保险制度的可持续发展形成了极大的挑战。目前，我国城镇职工基本养老保险的基金收入与支出及累计结余都保持稳步增长，但支出的增长速度有快于收入增长速度的趋势，并且由于各地区经济状况及人口因素的不同，各地的养老保险基金的收支状况也存在较大差距。在剔除财政对养老保险的补贴后，已有部分省份出现收不抵支的状况，基金的可持续运营压力大。本文在对养老保险相关理论基础分析的基础上，构建了我国城镇职工基本养老保险收支问题的因果关系图及流程图，在一定的假设基础上模拟了2011—2050年基本养老保险基金账户规模的变化情况。同时考察了养老保险的制度因素：养老保险缴费率、养老金替代率、制度覆盖面及退休年龄调整的情况下养老保险规模的变化情况。模拟预测结果显示，若维持现的制度参数不变，在2043年前后，基本养老金将会出现年度收支缺口，后期随着老龄人口的增多，基金缺口越来越大。覆盖率的提高能显著改善当期的基金收支状况，但也会带来后期的支付压力。待遇水平的下降有利于制度的可持续性，但对保障职工退休后的生活产生不利的影响。延迟退休能在一定程度上缓解养老保险基金的支付压力，但并不能解决基金收不抵支的困境。若待遇水平提高到合适水平，且制度覆盖范围及退休年龄的调缓慢增加时，能保持基金结余较长的增长期。对于制度因素调整的效果而言，在考虑基金投资收益的情况下，，快速调整的政策效果要优于缓慢调整。通过比较基金年度收支与累计结余可以发现，基金投资收益水平的提高对于制度的可持续运营至关重要。根据本文的研究结果，提出了降低养老保险缴费率，合理调整退休年龄，完善养老金计发办法及拓宽养老保险基金的投资渠道，增强收益率以增强其保值增值能力的措施，以促进我国城镇职工基本养老保险制度的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:The basic old-age insurance system for urban workers in China has made good progress since the beginning of the eighties of the 20th century and the establishment of the unified accounting system in the 1990s. However, with the change of population structure in our country, the arrival of aging society has posed a great challenge to the sustainable development of the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers in China. At present, the fund income, expenditure and accumulated balance of basic old-age insurance for urban workers in our country are increasing steadily, but the growth rate of expenditure is faster than that of income, and because of the different economic situation and population factors in different regions, The income and expenditure of endowment insurance fund of each place also exists big disparity. After excluding the financial subsidy to the old-age insurance, some provinces have a situation of non-payment, and the sustainable operation of the fund is under great pressure. Based on the analysis of the basic theory of endowment insurance, this paper constructs the causality diagram and flow chart of the income and expenditure of basic old-age insurance for urban workers in China. On the basis of certain assumptions, the paper simulates the changes in the size of the basic pension fund account in 2011-2050. At the same time, the paper examines the institutional factors of pension insurance, such as the contribution rate, the replacement rate, the coverage of the system and the change of the scale of the pension insurance under the condition of the adjustment of the retirement age. The simulation results show that if the current system parameters remain unchanged, there will be a gap in the annual income and expenditure of the basic pension around 2043. In the latter stage, with the increase of the aging population, the fund gap will become larger and bigger. The increase in coverage can significantly improve the current fund balance, but will also bring about late payment pressure. The decline of the treatment level is beneficial to the sustainability of the system, but it has a negative impact on the life of the employees after retirement. The delay in retirement can alleviate the payment pressure of pension fund to some extent, but it can not solve the fund's dilemma of over-charging. If the level of treatment is raised to the appropriate level and the coverage of the system and the adjustment of retirement age increase slowly, the longer growth period of fund balance can be maintained. For the effect of institutional adjustment, the policy effect of quick adjustment is better than that of slow adjustment when considering the investment income of fund. By comparing the annual income and expenditure of the fund with the accumulated balance, it can be found that the improvement of the investment income level of the fund is very important to the sustainable operation of the system. According to the research results of this paper, the paper puts forward some measures to reduce the contribution rate of pension insurance, to adjust the retirement age reasonably, to perfect the method of calculating and issuing pension, to widen the investment channel of pension insurance fund, and to strengthen the rate of return in order to enhance its ability to maintain and increase its value. In order to promote the sustainable development of the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers in China.
【学位授予单位】：西南政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.67

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