面向行业的审计仿真基础模型库构建技术研究

发布时间：2018-05-29 07:39

本文选题：基本养老保险 + 系统动力学业务模型　；参考：《哈尔滨工程大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：基本养老保险制度作为一项公共政策,其基金收支平衡关系到国计民生和社会稳定。我国基本养老保险体系的业务流程较为复杂,相关政策参数较多,由于研究侧重点和研究方法不同,学者们构建的养老保险业务模型存在一定差异。在数据来源方面,大部分研究多采用统计数据,在精度上不如养老保险真实数据,据此推导出的预测模型预测结果,虽然数据趋势上能反映出基金未来的走向,但难免失之精准。而养老保险的真实数据库系统,随着时间的推移,数据量亦越来越庞大,对研究人员和审计人员的信息化审计技术水平要求越来越高。本文基于此背景,首先运用系统动力学理论,深入分析基本养老保险体系,定性、定量地研究各政策参数及内生变量内部的因果作用机制,从而构建基本养老保险体系的业务模型;基于业务模型,提炼和转化出基本养老保险体系的审计仿真模型,并给出了一个算法,实现审计仿真模型审计方法的半自动生成;运用生成的审计方法,从养老保险真实数据库中获取研究数据,同业务模型组合成各项政策参数的预测模型,预测了未来的数据及其趋势。最后,对两个重要的政策参数“退休年龄”和“制度覆盖率”的不同取值情况进行对比分析,给出了“延长退休年龄不可取”和“提高制度覆盖率可取”这两个政策建议。
[Abstract]:As a public policy, the balance of fund income and expenditure is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood and social stability. The business process of the basic old-age insurance system in China is more complex and the relevant policy parameters are many. Due to the different research emphasis and research methods, the business models of the endowment insurance constructed by scholars have some differences. In terms of data sources, most of the studies use statistical data, which are not as accurate as the real data of pension insurance. The predicted results derived from this model can reflect the future trend of the fund, although the trend of the data can reflect the future trend of the fund. But it is inevitable to lose precision. And the real database system of endowment insurance, with the passage of time, the amount of data is more and more huge, and the information audit technology level of researchers and auditors is becoming more and more high. Based on this background, first of all, by using the theory of system dynamics, this paper deeply analyzes the basic pension insurance system, and studies the causality mechanism of each policy parameter and endogenous variable qualitatively and quantitatively. Based on the business model, the audit simulation model of the basic pension insurance system is refined and transformed, and an algorithm is given to realize the semi-automatic generation of audit simulation model. By using the generated audit method, we obtain the research data from the real database of the old-age insurance, combine with the business model to form the forecast model of the policy parameters, and predict the future data and its trend. Finally, the different values of "retirement age" and "system coverage", two important policy parameters, are compared and analyzed, and two policy suggestions are given: "not desirable to extend retirement age" and "desirable to increase system coverage".
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TP391.9;F842.67;F239.4

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