综合性保险公司与专业性保险公司偿付能力对比研究

发布时间：2018-05-29 21:42

本文选题：偿付能力 + 综合性保险公司　；参考：《东北财经大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：保险业已经发展成为与证券业和银行业并重的三大主要行业之一。保险公司的偿付能力表示一种“经济补偿能力”。如果保险公司出现偿付能力不足的情况,不仅会影响到本公司,而且会对整个保险业、甚至整个国民经济的稳定发展产生影响。纵观保险业的发展历史中,美国和日本都曾发生过严重的偿付能力危机。因此,为了消除偿付能力危机对保险业的影响,各国家都逐渐把偿付能力的监管放在保险监管的核心地位。对中国的保险公司而言,对偿付能力的最低标准是满足保监会的基本要求,中国保险监督委员会对保险公司进行监管的唯一综合指标是“偿付能力充足率”,没有对综合性保险公司和专业性保险公司进行区分,但从2014年各保险公司公布的信息来看,各保险公司的偿付能力充足率均已达到保监会的标准。在此基础上,本文对综合性保险公司和专业性保险公司的偿付能力进行对比研究。本文第一章主要介绍了本文选题的背景,相关文献综述以及创新点和不足：第二章主要对保险及保险公司的分类进行了简单的介绍,这部分的重点是从收入和支出两个方面把保险公司分为综合性保险公司和专业性保险公司,将本文所研究的107家保险公司分为70家综合性保险公司和37家专业性保险公司；第三章先对偿付能力的概念、影响因素、风险和监管进行了详细的说明。接着介绍了主要发达国家的偿付能力监管模式,并将中国的监管模式与国外的监管模式进行对比,强调了偿付能力在保险监管中的重要性；第四章对本文所选择的研究方法的基本思想和具体分类进行介绍,作为后面实证研究的理论基础。本文所选择的研究方法为Fisher判别分析和无序多分类logistic回归；第五章也是最重要的是本文的实证分析部分。本文数据来自各保险公司在其官网披露的年度信息报告(2013-2014)及2014年中国保险年鉴。根据2003年中国保险监督委员会发布的《关于保险公司偿付能力额度及监管指标管理规定》,考虑到对财险公司和寿险公司的共同影响,选择12个偿付能力监管指标,计算得出具体数据,认可资产与认可负债的确定尤为重要。为了精简指标,消除共线性对研究结果的影响,通过主成分分析和因子分析提取出5个与偿付能力密切相关的公因子。根据判别分析和logistic回归对因变量的要求,将偿付能力充足率小于500%的保险公司赋值为1,将偿付能力充足率介于500%-1000%的保险公司赋值为2,将偿付能力充足率大于1000%的保险公司赋值为3。在判别分析过程中,通过检验排除2个与偿付能力关系较小的指标,得到：在综合性保险公司中,偿付能力一般的保险公司占70%；偿付能力较好的保险公司占15.7%；偿付能力非常好的保险公司占14.3%；在专业性保险公司中,偿付能力一般的保险公司占83.8%；偿付能力较好的保险公司占10.8%；偿付能力非常好的保险公司占5.4%,正判率为83.4%。在logistic回归过程中,最终确定两个公因子,将类别1设置为参考,对样本进行分类。得到：在综合性保险公司中,偿付能力一般的保险公司占81.4%；偿付能力较好的保险公司占2.9%；偿付能力非常好的保险公司占15.7%；在专业性保险公司中,偿付能力一般的保险公司占97.3%；偿付能力非常好的保险公司占2.7%,正判率为87.9%。最后得出结论：综合性保险公司偿付能力好于专业性保险公司,并且正判率均已达到标准；但在初期对保险公司偿付能力进行分类时,对于类别2的界限还需要作进一步的调整。相应地提出如下建议：保监会可以适当加强对专业性保险公司的偿付能力监管；各保险公司也应根据自身的情况,对经营业务的范围进行合理的调整,合理预测将面临的风险,以促使本公司可以健康、长久的发展。针对综合性保险公司和专业性保险公司的划分、偿付能力的对比分析、能否将判别分析和logistic回归用于保险公司偿付能力的预测方面等问题,本文只是一次尝试性的研究,还存在很多问题需要进一步深入的研究和探讨。
[Abstract]:The insurance industry has developed into one of the three major industries that are equal to the securities and silver industries. The solvency of insurance companies is a "economic compensation ability". If the insurance companies have insufficient solvency, it will not only affect the company, but also the stable development of the whole insurance industry and even the whole national economy. Throughout the history of the insurance industry, both the United States and Japan have had a serious solvency crisis. So, in order to eliminate the impact of the solvency crisis on the insurance industry, countries have gradually put the supervision of solvency at the core of insurance regulation. For Chinese insurance companies, the minimum standard of solvency In order to meet the basic requirements of the CIRC, the only comprehensive indicator of the insurance company's supervision by the China Insurance Supervision Commission is the "solvency adequacy ratio". There is no distinction between the comprehensive insurance company and the professional insurance company, but from the information published by the insurance companies in 2014, the solvency adequacy ratio of the insurance companies is all It has reached the standard of the CIRC. On this basis, this article compares the solvency of the comprehensive insurance company and the professional insurance company. The first chapter mainly introduces the background of this topic, the literature review and the innovation points and shortcomings: the second chapter is a simple introduction to the classification of insurance and insurance companies. This part focuses on dividing insurance companies into a comprehensive insurance company and a professional insurance company from two aspects of income and expenditure. The 107 insurance companies studied in this article are divided into 70 comprehensive insurance companies and 37 professional insurance companies. The third chapter first carries out the concept of solvency, the influencing factors, the risk and the supervision. Then it introduces the mode of solvency supervision in the major developed countries, compares the Chinese regulatory model with the foreign regulatory model, and emphasizes the importance of the solvency in the insurance supervision. The fourth chapter introduces the basic thinking and specific classification of the research methods selected in this paper, as a later demonstration. The theoretical basis of this study is Fisher discriminant analysis and disordered multi classification logistic regression. The fifth chapter is also the most important part of the empirical analysis. The data comes from the annual information reports published by the insurance companies on their official networks (2013-2014) and the Chinese insurance Yearbook in 2014. According to 2003 China The insurance supervision committee issued < about the insurance company's solvency quota and the regulatory index management regulations >. Taking into account the common impact of the insurance companies and the life insurance companies, choosing 12 solvency regulatory indicators and calculating the specific data, the recognition of assets and approved liabilities is particularly important. In order to streamline the indicators and eliminate the collinearity, The results are influenced by the principal component analysis and factor analysis to extract 5 common factors which are closely related to the solvency. According to the discriminant analysis and logistic regression, the insurance companies with the solvency adequacy ratio less than 500% are assigned to 1, and the insurance companies with the solvency adequacy ratio of the 500%-1000% are assigned to 2. In the process of discriminatory analysis, an insurance company that has the solvency adequacy ratio of more than 1000% is 3.. In the process of discriminatory analysis, the insurance companies with good solvency account for 70% in the comprehensive insurance companies, 15.7% of the insurance companies with good solvency, and the insurer with good solvency. The company accounted for 14.3%; in the professional insurance companies, the insurance companies with the general solvency accounted for 83.8%; the solvency good insurance companies accounted for 10.8%; the solvency very good insurance companies accounted for 5.4%, the positive rate was 83.4%. in the logistic regression process, the final determination of the two public factors, the category 1 set as the reference, the samples were classified. To: in the comprehensive insurance company, the solvency is 81.4%, the solvency is better, the insurance company is 2.9%, the solvency is very good, the insurance company is 15.7%; in the professional insurance company, the solvency is 97.3%, the solvency is very good, the insurance company is 2.7%, the positive rate is 87.. 9%. concludes that the solvency of a comprehensive insurance company is better than that of a professional insurance company, and the positive rate has reached the standard. However, in the early stages of classification of the solvency of the insurance company, further adjustments should be made to the limits of category 2. The following suggestions are made accordingly: the CIRC can appropriately strengthen the professional nature. The insurance company's solvency supervision, and the insurance companies should adjust the scope of business reasonably according to their own circumstances, reasonably predict the risks that will be faced, in order to promote the company's health and long-term development. A comparative analysis of the division of comprehensive insurance companies and professional insurance companies and the solvency analysis, The application of discriminant analysis and logistic regression to the predictor of solvency of insurance companies is only a tentative study, and there are many problems that need further research and discussion.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F842.3

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